Sunday, 11 December 2016
Monday, 24 October 2016
Government Has a Roadmap to Ravitalize GDP Growth
Gopal Krishna Agarwal,
National Spokesperson on Economic Affairs, BJP
The announcements on demonetization have created a disruption in the country’s economic ecosystem. There is a Debate whether it will help us curb corruption and eliminate Black money. What will be its impact on the economy in the short medium and long term particularly in the important segments such as the rural and agriculture sectors micro small and medium enterprises and the unorganized sector such as small traders shop owners and daily wagers? But demonetization has to be seen in a larger perspective.
Bringing economic growth and curbing
corruption and eliminating black money were the two important mandates on which
our government came to power. Some important aspects have to be kept in mind. A
recent World Bank report stated that 20 percent of black wealth of our country
is stashed across all asset classes- real estate gold and currency etc. The
Global Wealth Report 2016 shows that 1 percent of the population has over 58
percent of the country’s wealth. In this India ranks second after Russia. It
also states that 97 percent has wealth of less than $ 10000- approximately Rs
7,00,000. This points out that over the years a lot of our wealth was
accumulated in the form of black money in the hands of a select few. A large
population was deprived of benefits of growth. Though the GDP Grew fast
employment could not keep pace with it leading to skewed growth in the economy.
This has to be corrected at all cost.
Objectives and effects of demonetization can not be analyzed in isolation.
It is a part of the series of measures undertaken by the Narendra Modi
Government. The very next day Shri Modi came to power a Special Investigation
Team was set up to suggest steps to curb corruption and eliminate black money.
The government has money objectives in
mind from demonetization. First , due to huge currency in circulation the
economy had inflationary pressure and housing was out of the common man’s
reach.
Demonetisation will reduce prices in
real estate and bring down inflation. Second It will bring resources to the
government for social benefits schemes for the poor and low income groups and
infrastructure development. Third, We will be able to move towards a low
interest rate economy. It will help create infrastructure for smoother
implementation of GST which will help us reduce indirect taxes. It will also
curb terrorist and criminal activities. Fake currencies will be eliminated. As
the cost of online payments and mobile banking are cheaper compared to physical
transaction, we have to benefit of lower cost of transactions. And finally with
audit trail and transparency, There will be higher tax compliance visible from
the third quarter tax collection and 15 percent increase in direct tax
collection. The government is aware of the liquidity crunch but this will be
sorted out by December 30. It will bring liquidity back into the system but at
a reduced level of about 9 percent of GDP.
Objectives and effects of demonetization
cannot be analyses in isolation. It is a part of the measures
undertaken by the Modi Government
The government knows that a squeeze in
liquidity can negatively affect economy activities. Therefore, It has a
roadmap to revitalize GDP Growth. The Increased current account and savings
accounts deposits of banks will reduce their cost of funds and increased
availability of funds. The Government will focus on credit off take through
startup, mudra loans to medium and small and rural sectors of the economy at
the reduced rate of interest. Real estate prices have started falling and with
the fall in the rate of EMI housing will come within the reach of the common
man and will boost the construction industry. If the black money in circulation
does not come to RBI through the banks, It will reduce the liability of the
central bank bringing several benefits to the economy, but this will be
achieved only when black money is not recycled therefore temporary restrictions
on withdrawal. With higher tax compliances the government will be able to
create a premium on honesty and move towards lower rates of taxation, as
already hinted by the Finance Ministers.
Friday, 21 October 2016
At Ease With The World
By Gopal Krishna Agarwal,
National spokesperson, BJP
PRIME MINISTER Narendra Modi has been able to leverage India's economic advantages to improve international relations and vice versa. He recognizes that India's ambition to become a $10-trillion economy and create 175 million jobs by 2032 will depend on linking the country's foreign policy to domestic transformation. The Modi government's policies have been geared to attract foreign capital and toward regional stability, peace and prosperity.
The prime
minister's personal rapport with international leaders has significantly
enhanced India's profile and given it a confidence never seen before. Western
economies are facing serious challenges. Global economic growth is seeing a
downward trend.
However,
Modi has been successful in convincing the international community that India
will realize its true potential an economic power. He has removed
apprehensions about corruption and showed commitment to reforms in tax and
corporate laws, better resource allocation, faster government clearances,
removal of bureaucratic hurdles, and retrospective taxation. Two major
apprehensions under the UPA regime - policy paralysis and large-scale
corruption - have been effectively checked.
The
government has embarked on initiatives like Make in India, Digital India,
Smart Cities, Clean India, Clean Ganga, GST and the bankruptcy law,
speeded up project clearances and revived stalled projects.
Over the
years, bilateral trade relations and agreements have gained enormous
significance in the international business arena and are now more influential
than multilateral pacts like the WTO and GATT. It is becoming more and more
difficult to bring developing countries to common agreeable points at
multilateral platforms and, therefore, small trade blocks like ASEAN, SAARC
and BRICS and bilateral Free Trade Agreements have gained prominence. PM Modi
has leveraged this tend to India's economic and strategic advantage. Over a
span of two years, he has visited more than 42 countries and nurtured new
developmental and economic blocks. The Act East policy connecting Bhutan
Bangladesh India Nepal (BBIN) through GPS and common licensing policy, a road
corridor from the North East to Myanmar are commendable initiatives.
The Modi
government ratified the Land
Border
Dispute Agreement (LBA) and addressed the maritime boundary dispute with
Bangladesh. It fast-tracked development projects in Afghanistan. India's
participation in the development of the Chabahar port in Iran and forging a
trilateral pact to build a land transit-and-trade corridor through Afghanistan
are stepping stones for bigger future involvement. The PM's Tehran visit
underlined the changing context of Iran, now a stable and resourceful country
and important for our energy security.
India-Japan
relations are at their best India hopes to attract $5.5 billion of investments
from Japan. Modi has built a good rapport with the German chancellor. Germany
is the key provider of high-end technology and has surplus capital. India is
looking forward to both technology and capital investment from Germany. In
partnership with France, India has established the International Solar
Alliance, with the head office in Gurgaon. This alliance, with 120 countries as
members, aims to harness the country’s solar power potential. Modi’s reconnect
with Central Asia has also been a crucial intervention Uzbekistan has strong
cultural ties with India.
Turkmenistan
is rich in energy; Kazakhstan has huge hydro potential while Tajikistan is
historically significant. Africa offers India a massive opportunity to expand
our global economic footprint. The continent is an important market for the
Indian economy. The 54 African states have a combined GDP. Which is larger than
that of India? The third India-Africa Summit in New Delhi in 2015 focused on
enhancing India's engage with Africa.
A visionary
step of PM Modi was leveraging India's powerful diaspora. While empowering the
diaspora in their domicile countries, the government has coordinated with them
for advocacy and building influence. He sought to connect directly with NRIs in
a unique fashion. His first outreach in New York - at Madison Square Garden -
attracted 15,000 NRIs. About 5,000 people attended his meeting in Beijing
whereas over 60,000 people turned up for the Wembley Stadium programme. The
significance of the diaspora is self-evident in the flow of remittance to
India: According to the World Bank, India received $72 billion in 2015 as
foreign remittance, making it the world's largest remittance-receiving
country.
India is
now among the world's top destinations for FDI flows. It has attracted
investment of close to $200 billion from foreign investors. In 2014, India's
total trade was 46 percent of the GDP. India plans to double its aggregate
global trade over the next decade.
Our targets
for 2019 include becoming the top start-up destination in the world, achieving
60 percent digital penetration and increasing the share of manufacturing in
GDP From 16 percent to 25 percent by 2022.
Wednesday, 14 September 2016
Economic Implication of PM Modi's Foreign Policy
By Gopal Krishna Agarwal,
There is no doubt that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been able to leverage India’s economic advantages to improve international relations and vice versa. His government has recognized that the country’s leverage is dependent primarily on the size of Indian economy, its growth trajectory and the ability of the strong government at the center to address challenges.
India’s ambition to become $10 trillion economy and to create 175 million jobs by 2032 will depend on the internal reforms initiatives. Linking India’s Foreign policy to domestic transformation, his policy seeks to attract foreign capital. The policies are geared towards regional stability, peace and prosperity. Some important issues such as climate change, conservation of water resources, renewable energy, robust economy defense procurement and manufacturing, which have simultaneous risk and opportunities, are Modi ji ’s vision for a modern India.
Along with this the personal rapport established by PM Narendra Modi with international readers have significantly enhanced India’s profile and given it a confidence never seen before even to the extent of balancing superpower to our own advantages, as can be seen from the recent G20 Summit. There was visible tension between the US & China, but both were at ease and supportive of India’s concerns. India Cushions itself from not becoming marginalized in the larger US-China context. Beijing has committed S20 billion investments in India in many Industries. The US is also supportive of all over initiatives.
Modi ji has been successful in overcoming doubts in the minds of the international community that India will realize its true potential of economic power. He has removed apprehensions with regard to corruption, transparency, ease of doing business and commitment to reform in tax laws, corporate law, resource allocation, government clearances, removal of bureaucratic hurdles and retrospective taxation. Two major apprehensions under UPA regime. Policy paralysis and large-scale corruption have been effectively checkmated. Government has embarked on economic growth with initiatives such as Make in India; Digital India; Smart Cities: Clean India; Clean Ganga; Ease of Doing Business, Tax reforms such as GST; Bankruptcy law; and project clearances & revival of stalled projects. India has become one of the most open economics with regard to FDI policy.
In International Business arena; over the years, bilateral trade relations and agreements have gained enormous significance than multilateral pact such as WTO, GATT, etc. It is becoming more and more difficult to bring developing countries to common agreeable points at multilateral platforms and therefore small trade blocs such as ASEAN, SAARC, BRICS AFRICAN Nations and bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) have gained prominence.
Modi ji has very well leveraged this to India’s economic and strategic advantage. Over the span of two years, He has visited more than 42 countries and held bilateral talks, focused and nurtured new developmental and economic blocs. His initiatives for Act East Policy, connecting Bhutan Bangladesh India Nepal (BBIN) through GPS and common licensing policy building a road corridor from North East to Myanmar, etc., are commendable.
Bilateral initiatives
Quickly ratified the long pending Land Border Dispute Agreement (LBA) and the Maritime Boundary dispute with Bangladesh. Government has been wise to fast-track India’s developmental projects in Afghanistan. India’s participation in the development of the chabahar port a trilateral pact to build a land transit and trade corridor through Afghanistan are stepping stones for bigger future involvement. His visit to Iran shows the understanding of the changing context of Iran, which is now a stable and resourceful country and important for our energy security. India- Japan relation are at an all time high in the joint statement of India and Japan 2025- India side expressed hope to attract $5.5 billion of investments and support in our infrastructure development. Building Good rapport with German Chancellor Internationally, Germany is the key provider of high-end technology and has surplus capital investment. Even for National Mission for Clean Ganga (NMCG), we can learn a lot from the river Rhine experiment; In Partnership with France, India has established the International Solar Alliance with head office in Gurugram (Haryana). This alliance has the membership of 120 countries for better harnessing of the solar power potential. Modi ji reconnect to Central Asia is crucial; Uzbekistan has strong cultural ties. Turkmenistan is rich in energy there is huge hydro potential in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan has historical significance.
Arica offers India a massive opportunity to expand our global economic footprint. The continent is an important market for Indian economy. The 54 African states have a combined GDP which is slightly larger than that of India. The third India Africa Summit in New Delhi in November 2015 had a focus on this engagement. Another important visionary step was leveraging powerful Indian diaspora across the world, in the process empowering them in their own countries, as well as coordinating with them for advocacy and influence for better diplomatic and economic relations with India PM Narendra Modi’s visit to United Arab Emirates (UAE), Seychelles, Mongolia and Fiji has given fillip to Indian exports, Direct connect with NRIs was very innovative, the first such gathering of 15000 NRIs was at New York’s iconic Madison Square Garden in Beijing he attracted a crowd of about 5000 people at Wembley Stadium over 60000 people gathered, Similar was the case in Australia, Inward remittance flows to India, according to the World Bank, totaled S72 billion in 2015, Making India the largest remittance-receiving country which is about half of our current account deficit.
Some positive results of Foreign Policy initiatives India is the world’s top destination for FDI flows in 2015, helping overcome many of its key growth constraints, particularly technology, energy and infrastructure attracting investment commitments of close to S20 billion from foreign investors. In 2014 India’s total exports were 20.7 percent and imports were 25.2 percent of GDP. Total trade was 46 percent of GDP, suggesting a moderate degree of integration with the rest of the world. India plans to double its aggregate global trade over the next decade. Our target for 2019 to become the top start-up destination in the world, achieve a top 50 ranking in the global ease of doing business, achieve 60 percent digital penetration and increase the share of manufacturing from 16 to 25 percent of GDP by 2022.
Currently, complex project financing services are undertaken abroad. We have to develop capacity to perform international financial services domestically by introducing some innovative Structured Financial Product. Recently The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has introduced ‘Masala bonds’. We have been strengthening the institutional structure for both commercial and strategic engagement with the rest of the world. India has been advocating governance reforms in International Monetary Fund (IMF), The World Bank, Asian Development Bank, African Development Bank and the inter-American Development Bank An ongoing negotiation for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a case in point. The Minister of Commerce has merged two bodies that handle anti-dumping and import safeguard actions in the Director General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) for improved and coordinate negotiations. India’s vigorous quest for Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) membership and becoming the member of Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) are also very significant. Modi ji has been leading the international debate on many issues- tax information exchange, transparency, corruption we were mostly defensive earlier at G20 summit, He said , G20’s efforts should be for zero tolerance for corruption and black money. Zero barriers and full commitment to action.
Fitting
corruption black money and tax evasion were keys to effective financial
governance. We need to eliminate safe havens for economic offenders, track down
and unconditionally extradite money launderers and break down the web of
complex international regulations and excessive banking secrecy that hide the
corrupt and their deeds, “PM Modi said. This is the position of strength that
we have gained at international forums.
Tuesday, 30 August 2016
वर्तमान परिपेक्ष्य में व्यक्ति एवं सामाजिक जीवन में गौसेवा का महत्व
Wednesday, 22 June 2016
BJP Welcomes New FDI Policy of the Modi Government
Wednesday, 15 June 2016
Laying Foundation For a Better tomorrow
Gopal Krishna Agarwal,
National Spokesperson on Economic Affairs, BJP
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent trip to America has elevated Indo-US ties to new heights, especially economic partnership. The confidence exhibited at the India-US business conclave earlier this week is a case in point.
His government has recently completed
two years in office. Going by the reports of various international think tanks
and international institutions, the Modi government has set India on the fast
track to growth by introducing a raft of measures to boost the economy.
Recent data from the Central Statistical
Organisation (CSO) points towards the fact that the Centre's focused approach
over the last two years is bearing great results. Some people have expressed
their reservations on these economic growth figures. But apart from a few
well-reasoned arguments, most of the criticism is politically motivated. It should
be borne in mind that the GDP now is being calculated using the globally
accepted Gross Value Added (GVA) method.
With the growth rate nearing 8 percent
in the last quarter of 2015-16, there is no doubt that the economy, which was
left in complete shambles by the previous UPA government, is on the fast track
to recovery. All fiscal parameters are on target, whether it is revenue
collection or expenditure or fiscal deficit at 3.9 percent of GDP.
Per capita income has also risen to Rs
93,293 from Rs 86,879 last year. Experts believe that the economy could grow in
the range of 8-8.2 percent in 2016-17. This would be backed by agriculture
sector growth surpassing the 3-4 percent mark depending on the monsoon.
All these achievements are the result of
the Modi government's tireless efforts. Flagship initiatives like UDAY, PAHAL,
and renegotiating Mauritius tax treaty, the revival of held-up projects in
roads and rural infrastructure, are showing extremely encouraging results.
These initiatives have created the requisite
infrastructure and demand in the economy to attract domestic and foreign
investment. Corruption-less and transparent governance in the last two years
has added more than Rs 4 lakh crore to the government treasury on account of
spectrum allocation, coal block, and mineral auctions, etc.
1 would like to highlight some of the
key areas of focus for the government. The first focus is towards dealing with
corruption and crony capitalism. Over the past 20 years, the world has been
reeling under the thumb of crony capitalists. To the uninitiated, crony
capitalism is a nexus between businessmen, obliging bureaucrats, and
politicians. It undermines the state, distorts resource allocation and is
against the spirit of equal entrepreneurship opportunities.
Through a fair judicial system,
efficient regulation and transparency in political funding, one can bring
positive results over a long period of time. Immediate steps to tackle this
menace include the careful and transparent process of transfer of government resources
into private hands, management of state-owned banks, especially their debts and
NPAs, control of parking and stashing of illegal money abroad.
On this count government has been very
focused and successful in its approach. In its recent edition, The Economist
stated: "Encouragingly, India seems to be cleaning up its act. In 2008
crony wealth reached 18 percent of GDP, putting it on a par with Russia.
Today it stands at 3 percent, a level
similar to Australia. A slump in commodity prices has obliterated the balance
sheets of its wild west mining tycoons. The government has got tough on graft,
and the central bank has prodded state-owned lenders to stop giving sweetheart
deals to Moghuls. The pinups of Indian capitalism are no longer the pampered scions
of its business dynasties."
A point of caution is that we have to be
very careful with the public-private partnership model. Under this system,
crony capitalists have devised a mechanism of transferring government resources
in a non-transparent manner. A case in point is the DND project in Noida.
The second important issue is the
management of overall debt. The world has been witness to China's financial
problems and its debt bust. The Chinese Debt/GDP ratio has increased to 260
percent from 150 percent in a decade. The latest issue of Economist says that
its problem loans have doubled in two years.
Hungry for profits in a slowing economy,
plenty of Chinese banks have miscategorised risky loans as investments to dodge
scrutiny and lessen capital requirements, according to The Economist.
"These shadow loans were worth roughly 16 percent of standard loans in
mid-2015, up from just 4 percent in 2012."
There are many lessons India could learn
from China. The Modi government has learned them well. Instead of pushing the
problem under the carpet, the Modi government has tackled it head on. The
ongoing clean-up of bank balance sheets will help spur economic growth and
improve the lenders' profitability. "Prompt actions are being taken on
willful defaulters," said Jayant Sinha, Minister of State for Finance.
"One of the key considerations in a
situation like this, the banks should be empowered and consequently protected
so that they can bring about prudent settlements," said Union Finance
Minister Arun Jaitley. "The overall operational profit of public sector banks
last year was quite significant. It was in excess of Rs 1.4 lakh crore. It is
on account of provisioning that the overall the PSBs declared a net loss of Rs
18,000 crore
The government has already enacted the
Bankruptcy and Insolvency Code. Another set of amendments to the debt recovery
legislation and securitization legislation are before Parliament. The
government is also considering setting up of Stressed Asset Management Funds.
The focused approach is not limited to
empowering and supporting banks to deal with NPA menace, but the government
agrees that the bad loan situation has also arisen on account of certain
sectoral stresses like held up road construction, blocked environmental
clearances, and dumping, among others.
The government is doing everything to
restart held up projects, clearances, anti-dumping measures and do away with
policy paralysis. The government has gone even further ahead and implemented
the recommendations of the Nayak Committee Report like the setting up of a Bank
Board Bureau.
The third important initiative is the
ease of doing business. These initiatives have helped in catalysing private
investments. Some of the initiatives include easy exit policy for genuine
investors, repealing of about 1000 redundant laws and more to come, faster and
transparent project clearance policy and better dispute resolution mechanism in
the tax department where thousands of crores of individual and government
resources are blocked.
There has been a reduction in the cost
of collection of direct taxes from 1.36 percent in the year
2001-2 to 0.59 percent in 2014-15. The
government has also initiated premature retirement and the removal of
inefficient and corrupt employees from various departments. And finally,
targeted and focused approach to ending corruption and black money, giving
one-time compliance window to declare illegal foreign and domestic assets.
Some areas, which require flagging for
the future, are labor reforms, disinvestment reforms, especially for
loss-making PSUs, lowering of interest rates as demanded by business community
with inflation, particularly of food items looming large, and land acquisition
issues and above all the passage of the Goods and Services Tax Bill.
Narendra Modi's philosophy of economic
development is growth through empowerment. The government has not only been
successful in generating resources for the benefit of the weaker sections but
also spending this money to reach the target beneficiaries in a transparent
manner.
With the use of JAM and direct benefit
transfer (DBT), the government has plugged leakages and created additional
revenue for social security. The government has given them social security and
also generated widespread demand to boost the economy.
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The resources at the command of the
government are being utilized to build rural infrastructures like toilets in
rural areas, electricity to each and every household, housing for by 2022,
irrigation and rural roads.
Employment opportunities for the weaker
sections are being enlarged through Skill India, Startup India Stand-up India
and by easy access to loans under MUDRA Bank. The real game changer in the near
future will be the doubling of farmers' income through reduced cost, better
national market access facilities, risk mitigation through user-friendly crop
insurance cover, soil health card, efficient irrigation like drip irrigation,
neem coated urea and digitization and reforms of land records, etc.
Truly this government is focusing on the
development of all sections of the society across cast, creed, religion and
geography. As a result of this focused approach, India has become one of the
fastest-growing major economies in the world and has been able to attract
largest Foreign Direct investment (FDI). We are sure that the government will
not sit on its laurels.
There is much more in store.