Tuesday, 22 July 2025

Modi govt has learned from past FTAs. Its priority now is building a manufacturing powerhouse

 Modi govt has learned from past FTAs. Its priority now is building a manufacturing powerhouse

Gopal Krishna Agarwal,

With the emergence of new geopolitical realities arising out of the unilateral announcement of reciprocal tariffs by President Donald Trumpthe US cannot be considered a very reliable trade partner. And, even if a bilateral trade agreement with the US is concluded, uncertainty about the country’s future actions remains. 


Trump had announced a 90-day window for tariff negotiations, which ended on 9 July. He later extended the deadline to 1 August and sent letters to 14 countries informing them about new tariff rates. 

India and the US are currently holding talks over a trade agreement, with the sixth round expected to be held in August, when American trade officials will visit India. This shows India’s importance as a trading partner for the US. 

There are other ambiguities around Trump’s administrative actions, and no one is sure of the outcome of US courts’ and the Senate’s interventions. Therefore, prudence demands that we go slow and wait for countries such as China, Japan, and Vietnam to negotiate with the US. India, meanwhile, can build strategic partnerships with other countries and blocs to prevent overdependence on the US market. The EU is expected to be stable and predictable in its approach, but India has to deftly negotiate the bloc’s impulse to impose non-tariff barriers under the garb of human and labour rights, environment, climate change etc. 

The World Trade Organization is virtually defunct and rulebased trading order looks like a thing of the past. Every country, including India, is negotiating Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with multiple other nations to protect its export market. In May, India concluded FTA negotiations with the United Kingdom, while talks with the EU and the US are in advanced stages. However, our approach to FTAs cannot be a simple replication of the old template and must be influenced by outcomes of the not-so-successful past trade agreements, such as the ASEAN-India FTA and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations. 

Past mistakes

The global trade and financial architecture that emerged in the post-World War 2 period supported a rule-based trading system. It allowed several poor countries to overcome the limitations of a small economy and tap into the export market. As a result, these countries — like South Korea, Taiwan, and China — were able to experience above–average growth rates for a long period of time. We missed riding the bus of free trade due to earlier policy misadventures like quota, license raj of Congress–led governments. Now our government is committed to make India a manufacturing powerhouse, but the bus of free trade has hit major road bumps. 

India is focusing on ensuring competitiveness of domestic industry right now, as there is absolutely no substitute for building the manufacturing sector. Past FTAs failed to yield much benefit because they exposed domestic industries to global competition without strengthening the manufacturing ecosystem through infrastructure development, availability of land and power, and ease of compliances. India needs structural reforms to reduce input costs. The Modi government’s focus is on slashing costs of land, power, logistics, compliances, and raw material to enhance global competitiveness of our manufacturers. Several steps have been taken in the last 11 years by the Centre, but a lot remains to be done at the state–level, as most of these areas are basically dependent on state policies. 

Micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSME) is an important sector for employment generation and integrating our manufacturing into global and regional supply chains. Therefore, before entering into any agreement, the government is ensuring full support to MSMEs. The MSMEs also have a lot to do at their end, since they face difficulty meeting international standards, which limits their competitiveness. It is important for this sector to build institutional capacity and technical know-how to follow global trade standards. Quality Control Order (QCO) was brought with this intention, but it has emerged as another challenge for Indian industries. QCOs hinder the import of raw materials and intermediate products required for manufacturing, creating a negative impact on the domestic production of goods, and reducing India’s export competitiveness. Therefore, there is a need for a more sector-specific approach to QCOs.

Our recent experiences with custom duties have shown that there is a conflict between imposition of countervailing duties and the interests of MSMEs. Such duties tend to favour big domestic producer industries at the cost of MSMEs which are the users of products that are subject to countervailing duties. So FTAs provide an opportunity for strategic tariff reduction on intermediate goods for the betterment of Indian industries. India will take a data-driven approach in determining tariffs to ensure that they don’t disrupt supply chains or discourage innovation and investment.

Agriculture sector protection, intellectual property rights, and public procurement are critical and form an important part of tariff negotiation. Hence, their interest is non-negotiable. Any concession given in these areas will be carefully evaluated and bargain precisely measured. We know that if India gives concession to one country or region, others would demand similar treatment and privileges. India should not bend over backward to seek concessions for movement of its citizens across borders as service providers. The negotiating countries use this demand to get concessions from India. Indian talent is in huge demand globally and other countries would anyway need Indian expertise. Otherwise, India can harness its human resources and potential to its own advantage.

An opportunity 

Major economic decisions are not made in the fog of uncertainty. Global economic uncertainties are not fully comprehensible and controllable, therefore India’s focus is on reducing domestic policy uncertainties. It will surely boost private capital formation. India also has to attract massive foreign capital in export-oriented sectors. But this is easier said than done. The country’s image as a destination for foreign capital faces challenges due to certain decisions of the past government, especially the Vodafone tax dispute. India still has significant work to do in areas like judicial reforms for contract enforcement.

Trade considerations cannot be fully separated from strategic considerations. The China+1 and risk diversion strategy of global manufacturers are an opportunity for India to benefit from current geopolitical challenges, and therefore the country’s focus in FTA negotiations is to counter China. Since China is a major challenge for India in multiple spheres, teaming up with countries at the receiving end of China’s irredentist and mercantilist policies is a viable option. This also means that India should still work for multilateral trade deals because third-world countries get a level playing field as well as some preferential treatment under multilateral trade platforms such as WTO.

Gopal Krishna Agarwal is the National Spokesperson of BJP

Friday, 23 May 2025

Operation Sindoor won't hurt Indian economy

 Operation Sindoor won't hurt Indian economy

By Gopal Krishna Agarwal,

The BJP leader addressed fears in some quarters that India’s military response to Pakistan would impact the economy amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and a global tariff war.

Operation Sindoor will not have any adverse effect on the Indian economy, BJP national spokesperson Gopal Krishna Agarwal said on Friday. Addressing a press conference in New Delhi. Agarwal sought to dispel fears in some quarters that India's military response to Pakistan following the terror attack in Pahalgam would impact the economy amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and a global tariff war.

There will be no negative impact, as India has never had significant economic relations with Pakistan," the BJP leader said. "On the other hand, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi said yesterday, if Pakistan does not stop terrorism, its economy will be completely destroyed."

Agarwal emphasised the strength of India's defence capabilities, underlining that 65 percent of the country's defence requirements are met through domestic procurement. India's PSUs -long seen as a liability- have shown exemplary market performance and profitability, especially in the defence sector, with defence exports also rising rapidly, he said.

"You will find companies like Hindustan Aeronautics and Mazagon Dock have orders booked years in advance," Agarwal said. "The BrahMos missile and the HAL Tejas combat aircraft have acquired a global reputation."

He also highlighted India's growing global engagement and strengthening diplomatic ties with the United States and European nations. Agarwal referred to PM Modi's statement during the Russia-Ukraine war, in which he tweeted, "This is not the era of war."

"This assertive message echoed globally, urging both nations to resolve their issues through dialogue. His call for peace received significant international praise and support," Agarwal added.

The BJP spokesperson also referenced External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, asserting that India seeks equal partners, not "preachers."

India's global confidence is growing.

He noted that growing global confidence in India is mirrored in domestic stability. Despite rising inflation worldwide, India has managed to keep price inflation under control at 4.4 percent, lower than the RBI's target band. While fiscal deficit levels have reached alarming levels in countries like the United States, India has kept its deficit under control. Agarwal also noted that India's foreign exchange reserves stand at $700 billion, even as the country continues to attract significant foreign direct investment.

He also pointed to global praise for India's Digital Public Infrastructure, especially at the G20 summit held in 2023. This includes the Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) scheme, which directly transfers welfare benefits into beneficiaries' bank accounts. He highlighted the exponential growth of India's capital markets, citing Morgan Stanley reports that project India's capital market-currently at 81,000-to reach 1,00,000 by 2026.

The BJP leader acknowledged that challenges remain, particularly due to the ongoing global tariff war and its disruptions. However, Agarwal suggested that this may offer India an opportunity to present itself as an alternative global manufacturing hub, referencing Apple's recent substantial investment in Bengaluru.

"Compared to our competitor countries, our reciprocal tariffs remain low. We will take advantage of this." Agarwal said. He also noted that, according to the RBI's May bulletin. India's manufacturing sector is expected to remain strong even if the country does not become a global manufacturing hub-thanks to its robust domestic consumption base.

The BJP leader also referenced the recent HSBC composite PMI index for India, which stood at 61.2. Indicating expansion in both the services and manufacturing sectors.

Agarwal cited other reports, including those by Moody's and Fitch, highlighting India's strong growth potential. "The economy is driven by perception, and the sentiment around India is very positive," he said.

The press conference underscored the Modi government's ongoing commitment to fostering economic growth through strategic reforms and policy initiatives. The creation of the Deregulation Commission aims to reduce bureaucratic hurdles and improve the ease of doing business, aligning with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's recent warning against overregulating enterprises and the role of the Competition Commission of India. Efforts are also underway to implement labour law reforms at the state level and to accelerate the finalisation of trade agreements, thereby enhancing India's global trade prospects. At the same time, significant initiatives are being rolled out to expand the country's renewable and nuclear energy capacities.

 (The writer is National Spokesperson of BJP)

Thursday, 22 May 2025

NATIONALISM, DEMOCRACY AND POLITICS

 NATIONALISM, DEMOCRACY AND POLITICS

By Gopal Krishna Agarwal,

Amidst the ever-changing dynamics of global and internal politics, Prime Minister Narendra Modi shows how a leader should paddle the responsibilities of nation on one's capable shoulders.

BY 2014, Bharatiya masses were absolutely fed up with the tyranny of the unelected bodies like National Advisory Council (NAC), judicial overreach and political corruption and voted in the national democratic alliance (NDA) under Narendra Modi with a thumping majority. People wanted a strong leader who was proud of Bharat's heritage, practices and tradition, assured the sanctity of its international borders and guaranteed peace within, and follow the policy of Nation First.

FEAR MONGERING TACTICS

Fears were raised by the opposition that if BJP under Modi was voted to power, Bharat's relations with Islamic countries, especially the vital Middle Eastern Block, would nosedive. None of these preposterous prophecies came true. In fact, over the years Bharat's relations with Gulf countries has seen significant improvement. The first Hindu temple in the region was inaugurated by PM Modi in Abu Dhabi. Happy with the performance of the Modi government, people have voted him back to power for the third successive term. However, the opposition parties, particularly leader of opposition Rahul Gandhi, are leaving no stone unturned to undermine Narendra Modi to the extent that he continues with is anti-Bharat tirade in alliance with international Left-liberal forces.

REBUTTAL BY BIGGIES

Now, it seems that the nightmare of Left, social democrats and self-certified liberal leadership across the world is not going to end anytime soon. They cannot ever fully recover from the speeches from Prime Minister of Italy Giorgia Meloni, US Vice President JD Vance and President Donald Trump made in the recent past Right leaning leaders are speaking their mind, and this has encouraged candour and free speech across the globe. The Left is in retreat.

In her speech at CPAC in February this year, Meloni mentioned that Bill Clinton and Tony Blair created global leftist liberal network, and they were hailed as statesmen by this cabal. Today this same associated group, with its tentacles spread to academia, media, film and television industry brand popular conservative leaders like Modi as threats to democracy. The moral hectoring that the voters in any country that votes for a conservative, right leaning government receive is unbelievable.

INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL DYNAMICS

This is also very much evident right now in Germany where a new party Alternative for Germany (Afi)) has emerged as a popular choice. AfD prioritizes German sovereignty and culture and Western values, and the traditional left leaning parties feel threatened.

However, instead of responding to the wishes of the people, as a party is expected to in a democracy, the incumbents looked for ways to keep AID out of the electoral fray. In December last year, the Romanian presidential election was annulled by its top court on flimsy ground of Russian influence only because the winner, Calin Georgescu was considered far-right and a NATO critic. He was later declared ineligible to contest elections by the Central Electoral Bureau of Romania, and the decision was upheld in Romania's constitutional court.

The latest in this series is the conviction of France's right leaning leader Marie Le Pen on the charges of diversion of public funds for political purposes. She has been declared ineligible to contest election for five years. Effectively ending her political career. The playbook of the Left is simple: keep patriotic leaders away from contesting elections by unleashing a witch-hunt against them through their ideological partners in the judiciary. This allows these parties to maintain a façade of being democratic while ensuring that mass leaders do not get elected.

THE PROBLEM OF LEFT

Why is it difficult for the Left to accept that faith, practices and tradition matters to most of the people even today? Is it because they see these values as obstacles in their aim to capture the state and its instrumentalities? The idea of political correctness is also strange. Something that is obvious and appeals to common sense becomes politically incorrect just because the Left does not approve of it. Anything that is consistent to Left's worldview becomes politically correct!

Whatever it may claim, one must understand that Leftist ideology is intrinsically anti-national and anti-democratic. It believes in complete capture of state machinery to perpetuate their rule and relies on woke ideology to brainwash the young and the impressionable. They do not believe in the ability of people to decide for their own selves.

TROUBLING RESEMBLANCE IN BHARAT

We see disturbing parallels in Bharat. Congress believes and acts as if it has the natural claim to rule over Bharat. It refuses to accept electoral verdicts and attacks the institution of the Election Commission of India and the EVMs when it loses. It shows similar attitude towards investigation authorities, as in the National Herald case and even judicial pronouncements, undermining court orders when they are unfavourable to them. In January this year, Rahul Gandhi declared that the Congress Party is not only fighting the BJP and the RSS but the Indian State itself!

A global coalition of the Right, something the Left would claim to be an oxymoron, is gradually emerging. Countries would continue to engage with one-another prioritising their national interests. It only implies that the governments would be more responsive to the needs and aspirations of its own people. This is true democracy at work. During his current official visit to Bharat, US Vice President JD Vance said, "President Trump and I know that Prime Minister Modi is a tough negotiator. It's one of the reasons why we respect him" Strong national identity and conservative leanings do not preclude global cooperation. PM Modi is a global icon of popular conservative leader and has forged strong relations with other global leaders. It bodes well for Bharat's global standing and its future role in current geopolitical scenario.

The writer is National Spokesperson of BJP


Thursday, 15 May 2025

India is the most compelling story of the present era. We mustn’t squander this opportunity

 India is the most compelling story of the present era. We mustn’t squander this opportunity   

By Gopal Krishna Agarwal, 

The current geopolitical situation arising out of the US-China trade war and our conflict with Pakistan can be leveraged to India’s advantage. How we do so will decide the future of India.

The destination of Viksit Bharat is that we become a robust economy with high per capita income, have strong defence and military capabilities, and intense global engagements with world leaders and international institutions that match our stature.

 

The current situation provides opportunities for India in all three arenas: economic power, defence capabilities, and global engagement. How we leverage them will decide the future of India. Ultimately, it is the people, their perception, and will to achieve that matter.

The current geopolitical situation arising out of the US-China trade war and our conflict with Pakistan can be leveraged to India’s advantage. Domestically, our economic fundamentals like low inflation, a fiscal consolidation glide path, good foreign exchange reserves, highest foreign direct investment flows, infrastructure growth, digital public infrastructure in place, booming capital markets, and revival of public sector undertakings and banks, among other things, are helping build a robust Indian economy.

India’s new trade advantage

The trade tension between the US and China is benefiting India. American buyers are looking toward Indian suppliers, improving India’s prospect for better engagement with the world. We have free trade agreements (FTAs) with Australia, the UAE, and have just concluded an expansive FTA with the United Kingdom. An interim trade deal with the US is also imminent.

 

Our increasing economic and commercial engagement with the wider world dramatically increases the market for Indian products. Reduction in import duties will impart competitiveness for Indian manufacturers and boost their overall productivity. India has already undertaken a number of structural reforms, and a lot more are in the pipeline.

 

Though there will be resistance to reforms by vested interest groups, and the success of government will be measured in how deftly it manages to blunt political opposition to the reform agenda. Other countries in the world are also trying to capture the opportunities arising from trade disruptions. India will need to be extremely agile to be able to emerge as a winner.

A message to Pakistan and the world

In the recent standoff with Pakistan, India has demonstrated its intent as well as the ability to punish the purveyors of terrorism. It has made it clear that no place in Pakistan is outside the reach of Indian armed forces. We have been able to destroy Pakistan-sponsored core terrorist group infrastructure, situated deep inside Pakistan, at nine places.

During Operation Sindoor, India destroyed and destabilised Pakistani defences at places like Lahore, Karachi, and Rawalpindi. India’s targeted strikes on eleven major Pakistani airbases have decisively shifted regional military dynamics. These pre-emptive attacks, carried out with precision, have dismantled Pakistan’s ability to maintain any air superiority, and any meaningful counter-response from these bases having critical function, inflicting psychological and strategic damage to the Pakistani military establishment.

The successful neutralising of Pakistan’s military aerial intrusions, and our ability to defend Indian airspace, is also evident. At the same time, India’s repeated declarations that our actions were non-escalatory in nature gave Pakistan enough opportunity to off-ramp, ensuring global support for our actions.

Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi ji said that terrorism and talks, and terrorism and trade, cannot go together. He added that any future talk with Pakistan will be on Pak-Occupied Kashmir (PoK) and state-sponsored terrorism only. The emphatic statement that any terrorist action will be considered an ‘act of war’, and keeping the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance, shows a clear policy shift in our dealing with Pakistan.

An issue at hand is also how a regional conflict with an adversary that is in a dire state—of unstable economy, multiple state actors within the ruling establishment, and civic unrest from Baluchistan and Punjab province uprisings—can impact us.

Even so, the world over, it is acknowledged that India is the most compelling story of the present era, attracting huge global investments, and we must not squander this opportunity.

Brand India on the rise

Prime Minister Modi’s engagement with global leadership and at international platforms has been exemplary. His interventions in the Ukraine-Russia war, and the statement that “this is not an era of war” to President Putin, have been very well appreciated across the world. The success of the G20 has established ‘Brand India’. Our US engagement shows the finesse of a mature diplomacy and a mutuality of interests. India’s straight and frank talks with European nations about preaching and practising democracy, or dealing with oil sanctions, come from clear vision and inner strength. India now acts and talks like a global leader, and as our economy grows bigger, our say in global affairs will increase even more.

The stage is set for India to assume strong leadership status at the global level, but it needs to do a lot of work on many fronts domestically. India has to grow its GDP at over 8 per cent per annum on a sustained basis, something that has never been achieved in the country till now. Our tryst with destiny, and opportune time is here; whether we the people of India, and our politics, will rise to the occasion, only time will tell.


Gopal Krishna Agarwal is the national spokesperson of the BJP. He tweets @gopalkagarwal. Views are personal.

Tuesday, 4 February 2025

गरीब, युवा, किसान, महिलाओं को केंद्र में रख तैयार हुआ बजट

 गरीब, युवा, किसान, महिलाओं को केंद्र में रख तैयार हुआ बजट

गोपाल कृष्ण अग्रवाल,
राष्ट्रीय प्रवक्ता, भाजपा। 

 

जब उम्मीदे आकाश छू रही हो तब भी यदि बजट उन पर खरा उतर जाए तो यह निश्चित ही प्रशंसा की बात है। आयकर राहत के बारे में बहुत चर्चा होगी, लेकिन अन्य अच्छे कदम भी उठाए गए है, जिनके बारे में बात की जानी चाहिए।

अंतरराष्ट्रीय भू-राजनीतिक स्थिति और ट्रम्प प्रेसीडेंसी ने वैश्विक मामलों में अनिश्चितता का माहौल बनाया है। गरीबी, युवाओं किसानों और महिलाओं की चिंताएं बजट निर्माण प्रक्रिया के केंद्र में थीं और उनके लिए प्रावधान है। बजट ने चार विकास इंजनों की पहचान की है - कृषि एमएसएमई, निवेश और निर्यात बजट में निवेश की परिकल्पना एक समग्र तरीके से की गई है. जिसमें अर्थव्यवस्था और नवाचार में निवेश शामिल है। कराधान, ऊर्जा, शहरी विकास, खनन, वित्तीय क्षेत्र और नियामक मुधारों सहित छह क्षेत्रों में परिवर्तनकारी सुधार शुरू किए जाएगे।

 बजट के जो खंड ध्यान आकर्षित करते हैं ये व्यक्ति की व्यक्तिगत प्रवृत्ति और स्वार्थ के आधार पर अलग-अलग हो सकते हैं। मेरे लिए, किसी भी बजट या योजना के विकास उन्मुख कदम सबसे महत्वपूर्ण है। ईज ऑफ डूइंग के मोर्चे पर सभी उपलब्धियों के बावजूद, अभी भी बहुत कुछ हासिल करना बाकी है। वित मंत्री ने अपने बजट भाषण में कहा कि नियम पंख जैसे हल्के होंगे और विश्वास के सिद्धातो पर आधारित होगे। अनुपालन पर बहुत अधिक भरोसा किया जाएगा। किसी भी घरेलू वित्त के प्रबंधक की तरह वित्त मंत्री ने अपने पैसे का अधिकतम उपयोग करने की कोशिश की है। बजट में दो महत्वपूर्ण घोषणाएं इस बात को रेखांकित करती है। पहला सरकार की योजना है कि वह

कृषि प्रदर्शन के आधार पर 100 सबसे वंचित जिलों पर ध्यान केंद्रित करेगी और दूसरा । लाख अतिरिक्त घरो के पूर्ण होने के लिए 15,000 करोड़ रुपये की घोषणा से।

 विकसित भारत के लक्ष्य को प्राप्त करने के लिए, बजट भारत के बढ़ते मध्यम वर्ग की खर्च करने की शक्ति को बढ़ाने और घरेलू भावनाओं को बढ़ाने     का प्रयास करता है। 12 लाख तक की आय कर से मुक्त होगी और कर स्लैब में भी संशोधन किया गया है।

 यह मध्यम और नव-मध्यम वर्ग के लिए एक बड़ी राहत है। यह एफएमसीजी, यात्रा और पर्यटन, ऑटोमोबाइल आदि जैसे क्षेत्रों की मदद करेगा। बजट भाषण में यह भी घोषणा की गई है कि एक नया सरल और वाहत छोटा आयकर अधिनियम आने वाले सप्ताह में पेश किया जाएगा। दो अन्य घोषणाएं है जिनका उल्लेख किया जाना चाहिए। वित्त मंत्री ने कहा कि भारत को 2047 तक अपने ऊर्जा संक्रमण प्रयासों के लिए और इस लक्ष्य की दिशा में निजी क्षेत्र के साथ सक्रिय साझेदारी के लिए कम से कम 100 जीडब्ल्यू नाभिकीय ऊर्जा की आवश्यकता है। दूसरी घोषणा है कि द्विपक्षीय निवेश संधि (बीआईटी) के मॉडल को बदलना और इसे अधिक निवेशक अनुकूल बनाना। इस जोर के कारण आने वाले माहीनों में विधायी पक्ष पर बहुत काम वह होगा।