Gopal Krishna Agarwal,
The recent churn in global trade and geopolitics has exposed the
limits of sentiment-driven diplomacy and forced nations to reassess long-held
assumptions about strategic partnerships
The last few months have upended
not only global trade but also long-held beliefs in international relations.
Despite being strategic partners and natural allies, we see that many
countries' policies, particularly those of the US, are not conducive to India's
global positioning and current stature. Though the Indo-US trade talks are back
on track after hitting a rough patch, Indians should not be too surprised by
any future shocks. The US has put restrictions on the H-1B visa and the
withdrawal of the exemption to the Chabahar port in Iran, both of which
disproportionately affect Indian interests. Our surprise at these developments
reflects on our lack of perspective on geopolitics and geo-economics.
Global geopolitics is given.
Every country is pursuing its national interests. An overlap of interests in
one area does not mean that the first country will not pursue its interests in
matters that might put it in an adversarial position with some of its partners.
Pursuance of one's own national interest also involves actively undermining the
economic, strategic and political interests of other countries.
India must first and foremost
decide its national interests. It includes rapid economic growth, social
stability, peace within its borders, and the maintenance of credible deterrence
along its land borders in the north, east, and west. Our national interest also
lies in maintaining strategic autonomy, for which we need to insulate ourselves
from hostile actions by global powers in the domain of energy (oil and gas),
semiconductors, rare earth materials, pharmaceuticals, defence platforms, etc.
Some of these need to be achieved through the doctrine of aatmanirbharta,
irrespective of the financial costs involved. For others, we need to cultivate
our relations with other countries and strengthen multilateral platforms.
No doubt, the US have bruised
Indian self-respect and ego, and there is a shared sense of betrayal among the
citizens; however, the path of retaliation is not a prudent strategy. India has
already done enough to show that global players would not dictate it on matters
of its national interest. We do not depend on external security cover. We have
continuously reduced our dependence on foreign sources in defence relations,
especially in the purchase of offensive platforms that require constant support
for operations and maintenance. Except for energy, all other areas of
engagement are expected to remain unaffected.
America and European countries
remain important to India. As a free, democratic, and secular society, India is
a natural ally of the US and other G7 and G20 countries. Until we have a trade
deal with the US, our FTAs with countries like Germany, the United Kingdom, New
Zealand, Oman, the UAE, Australia, Latin America, and the Eurasian Economic Union
are bound to benefit our economy. This is already evident in the increase in
our exports, robust GDP growth, and IIP manufacturing-sector numbers.
But to take full benefit of FTA,
our first focus should be on domestic reforms and strengthening our
manufacturing sector, particularly the MSME segment. It was already a work in
progress and a focus area for the government, but the trade imbroglio with the
US has added urgency. It is an undeniable fact that the Indian manufacturing
sector still needs to cover a lot of ground to be globally competitive. India
could not fully take advantage of its earlier FTAs with countries such as Japan
and South Korea because of this limitation. The recent Goods and Services Tax
(GST) Next Gen 2.0 reforms and other important steps, such as deregulation and
Labour Code notifications that reform factor markets, will ensure that our
economy continues to withstand global shocks and move ahead as the
fastest-growing large economy in the world.
India has always been a strong proponent
of multilateralism and a rules-based international order. The current cold
phase in global relations gives India the opportunity to focus its time and
attention on protecting and promoting multilateral platforms and organisations.
A world divided into small camps with competing bilateral relations is neither
conducive to economic growth nor to global peace. Bilateral free trade
agreements (FTAs) have become a rage, and we too are negotiating several FTAs,
but we should not forget to protect the interests of the Global South, most of
which would not be able to negotiate fair bilateral trade agreements with the
Western block.
India is not beholden to any
great power and will never act as a hired gun. This might come as a
disappointment to some countries, but they must understand the psyche of the
Indian state and modify their expectations accordingly. We might have some
overlap with China right now, but given the ruthless pursuit of its own
interests and its strategic culture and history, China might try to lull us
into complacency and then give us a rude shock later.
A unique feature of hotly
contested domestic politics in India was a near-consensus on international
matters. With an irresponsible opposition that fails to draw a boundary between
political and national interest, that aspect of consensus is, regrettably,
missing right now. Domestic political compulsions in such cases may limit the
options of the Government to take a strong stand on foreign affairs. Thankfully,
Modi Government, in pursuance of India's national interest, is not constrained
by petty domestic political considerations.
