Thursday, 16 April 2020
कोरोना वायरस से भारत की अर्थव्यवस्था पर प्रभाव एवं निदान
Wednesday, 15 April 2020
Never waste a crisis
By Gopal Krishna Agarwal,
India is
doing a commendable job in fighting the Covid-19 pandemic. It took the epidemic
seriously unlike some other countries when it emerged on the global horizon and
has generally been ahead of the curve. Whether it's the screening of
international passengers, quarantine, or announcing lockdown, the central
government has never been found wavering or hesitant.
The first priority obviously is to save people from this virus. The lockdown was announced when the cases were still very few. It reduced the speed of the spread of the virus and gave the government time to set up the required health infrastructure. Then the focus of the government shifted to mitigating the hardships of the people due to the lockdown. And now, rightly so, the focus is gradually shifting to the health of the economy.
It is an understatement to say that the economy has been severely affected by the lockdown. The global economic engine has come to a sudden stop because of the pandemic, as one country after another declared lockdown. The Indian economy, which was on a recovery path after a slower growth phase, has been brought down to its knees.
Covid-19 is a non-linear and uncertain event. Proper action at the right time alone will ensure that the cost of recovery is not huge. The likelihood of post-Covid-19 recovery being a V-, U-or L-shaped curve will depend on the road map ahead. The government intervention will be commensurate with the severity of the global recession. India's strengths are its demography, democracy, and demand and while the first two will remain unaffected by the crisis, demand will diminish due to economic uncertainty, job losses, and financial problems. Therefore, post-Covid-19, the government will focus on reviving the demand.
The business of SMEs and other small enterprises is disrupted in a major way. In the absence of public social safety measures, compelling the private sector to bear its cost is not justified. There already is a twin risk aversion in the credit market for the SMEs. Credit guarantee schemes have to be made more robust and the government will have to actively consider sharing some part of the credit risk. Though, the availability of credit is not the only issue for the SMEs, going concern and business-continuity plans require a strong balance sheet which is missing among the SMEs.
The trend of deglobalization, which started after the global financial crisis and gained strength after the 2016 US elections, is expected to accelerate. The world will see the reshaping of international relations. Non-economic dimensions will become more important as countries try to become self-sufficient. However, countries will not return to autarky as no country can be fully self-sufficient in the present era. Though India will try to be self-reliant in critical products, that will not be achieved merely by increasing import duties global competition is an important factor in boosting domestic productivity.
The shutdown in China due to the COVID-19 outbreak was a rude shock for countries. It highlighted their vulnerability due to dependence on one country. A number of multinational corporations are working on a risk diversification strategy, but India will not automatically benefit from such a shift out of China: The success of Bangladesh and Vietnam over India is a sobering reminder. Old rulebooks that hamper private initiative will have to be scrapped by the government.
The
government can formulate a new National Manufacturing Policy to make manufacturing
in India competitive. The cost of doing business is very high compared to other
countries. The cost of compliance, logistics, power, land and so on are very
high. This is the right time to undertake factor market reforms, particularly
land and labor. The crisis has also shown the importance of migrant workers in
keeping the wheels of the economy moving. Going forward, we need a large
infrastructure set up for migrant workers so that the events of mass exodus do
not reoccur.
The crisis has brought in sharp focus the aspect of state capacity. Our private sector has immense potential and in times of crises such as the present, the government will need to have in place a mechanism to rope in the private sector to augment the state capacity. The use of big data and artificial intelligence (AI) for good governance, policies, and welfare programs can bring massive improvement in state capacity. India's earlier digital story based on Aadhaar is very different from that in the US and China, and has set an example for the world. Using Al to identify critical areas for government intervention and scenario planning have the potential for huge application in better execution of schemes, predicting natural calamities, agricultural output, and so on. India has the talent to do it.
The lockdown will be lifted in a staggered manner and after detailed planning and a standard operating procedure. With inflation remaining under control and lower oil prices benefiting India, the Centre may use special provisions under the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act to go for a one-time off-balance sheet borrowing with a declared timeline. The borrowing limits on states under the FRBM Act may have to be relaxed for the time being.
Reviving demand, increasing liquidity and big-ticket reforms is the road map. India is fighting the current crisis with all its might and we will set the path for other nations to follow.
The author is national spokesperson of the BJP for economic affairs
Monday, 30 March 2020
कोरोना से मुकाबले के लिए खुल गया खजाना
कोरोना से मुकाबले के लिए खुल गया खजाना
गोपालकृष्ण अग्रवाल,
कोरोना महामारी से पूरे विश्व की अर्थव्यवस्था को जबर्दस्त झटका लगा है। वास्तविकता यह है कि आज यूरोप, चीन और अमेरिका की अर्थव्यवस्था से सभी देशों की इकॉनमी जुड़ी हुई है। किसी एक के प्रभावित होने से दूसरे पर भी संकट आ जाता है। भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था विश्व की पांचवीं अर्थव्यवस्था के रूप में स्थापित हो गई है और आने वाले दौर में तीसरे पायदान पर पहुंचने का लक्ष्य रख कर आगे बढ़ रही है। कोरोना की आपदा ने पहले चीन को झटका दिया। पर चूंकि वहां प्रजातंत्र नहीं है और सरकार का जबर्दस्त डंडा चलता है तो उसने डंडे के जोर पर इस महामारी को रोक लिया। जैसी जानकारी मिल रही है वहां आर्थिक गतिविधियां फिर से चालू हो रही हैं, जिसके कारण यह आशंका पूरे विश्व में फैल रही है कि दुनिया को सही समय पर इस त्रासदी की सूचना चीन की तरफ से नहीं मिली।
चुनौतियों पर नजर
यूरोप, खासकर इटली और स्पेन में महामारी बड़े पैमाने पर फैल गई है। वहां की स्वास्थ्य व्यवस्था चरमरा गई है और ये देश अपने आप को विवश महसूस कर रहे हैं। यूरोप और अमेरिका की स्वास्थ्य सेवाएं बहुत अच्छी मानी जाती हैं। अमेरिका में अभी देखना पड़ेगा कि वह कैसे और कितना इससे जूझने में सफल होता है।
भारत में भी यह महामारी लगातार अपने पांव पसार रही है। हम इसे किस तरह और कितना संभाल पाते हैं, यह तो आने वाला समय बताएगा। इस मायने में अगले 20 दिन महत्वपूर्ण हैं। अभी यह उत्सुकता का विषय है कि हम इस महामारी को जन भागीदारी और प्रबल इच्छा शक्ति से किस हद तक रोक लेते हैं। अगर हम इस पर काबू नहीं कर पाए तो यह भारत की अर्थव्यवस्था को भी हिलाकर रख देगी।
भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था में कई चुनौतियां पहले से मौजूद थीं। वैश्विक स्तर पर पहले से चीन और अमेरिका में ट्रेड वार चल रहा था। वैश्वीकरण के दौर के विपरीत सभी देश अपने आंतरिक आर्थिक विकास पर ज़्यादा ध्यान दे रहे थे। भारत ने उस चुनौती को ध्यान में रखकर आरसीईपी से अपने को अलग किया। फ्री ट्रेड एग्रीमेंट (एफटीए) और आसियान देशों के साथ समझौतों पर पुनर्विचार की प्रक्रिया प्रारंभ कर दी थी। बजट 2020 में कस्टम ड्यूटी एवं इंपोर्ट ड्यूटी कई सामानों पर बढ़ा दी थी जिससे हमारे छोटे और मझोले व्यापारियों को बड़ी राहत मिली है।
भारत सरकार जिस तरह से अब सोच रही है, उस पर जल्द ही और आगे बढ़ेगी तो हमारे मैन्युफैक्चरिंग उद्योगों को बड़ा सहारा मिलेगा। पेट्रोलियम पदार्थों के दाम भी विश्व में काफी गिर गए हैं जिससे भारत को बड़ी राजकोषीय राहत मिल रही है। अभी आवश्यकता है सबसे कमजोर वर्ग को राहत देने की। दिहाड़ी मजदूरों, रेहड़ी लगाने वालों और असंगठित क्षेत्र के सभी कर्मियों को आने वाले एक-दो महीने के भीतर सीधे धन उपलब्ध कराना होगा। यह आवश्यक है कि उन्हें कुछ नियमित आमदनी होती रहे। कामकाज बंद होने से उन्हें जो नुकसान हुआ है, उसकी भरपाई आवश्यक है। इसलिए जब तक उनकी व्यवस्थित कमाई की शुरुआत न हो तब तक उनके खाते में पैसे पहुंचते रहने चाहिए।
सरकार ने सभी कर्मचारियों को वेतन दिलवाने का निर्णय किया है। कॉरपोरेट और व्यापार जगत के लोगों की इस मौके पर महत्वपूर्ण भूमिका है। हालांकि वर्तमान संकट से वे खुद भी बड़ा झटका महसूस कर रहे हैं। उन्हें वर्तमान परिस्थितियों में सक्षम बनाने के लिए वित्त मंत्री ने कई घोषणाएं की हैं। जैसे यह कि हम वैधानिक और नियामक अनुपालन से जुड़ी एक विस्तृत योजना लेकर आए हैं ताकि कंपनियों को इनकम टैक्स या आईबीसी कोड से जुड़े नियमों का पालन करने में कोई दिक्कत ना हो। फाइनेंशियल ईयर 2018-19 के लिए इनकम टैक्स रिटर्न फाइल करने की आखिरी तारीख 30 जून होगी। देर से रिटर्न फाइल करने पर लगने वाला ब्याज भी घटा दिया गया है। पहले 12 फीसदी ब्याज देना पड़ता था जिसे घटाकर अब 9 फीसदी कर दिया गया है।
आधार से पैन कार्ड लिंक करने की आखिरी तारीख, ‘विवाद से विश्वास’ स्कीम की अंतिम तिथि, जीएसटी रिटर्न फाइल करने की आखिरी तारीख, ‘सबका विश्वास’ स्कीम की डेडलाइन और कस्टम्स क्लीयरेंस से जुड़े मामलों का निपटान, इनमें हर किसी की तारीख 30 जून 2020 कर दी गई है।
कोरोना वायरस से जुड़े कार्यों में अब सीएसआर का फंड दिया जा सकता है, यह घोषणा भी वित्त मंत्री ने की। कंपनियों की बोर्ड मीटिंग को अगली दो तिमाहियों तक 60 दिनों की और मोहलत दी गई है। अप्लिकेबिलिटी ऑफ दि कंपनीज ऑडिटर्स रिपोर्ट-2020 जो पहले वित्त वर्ष 2019-20 में आने वाली थी, अब वित्त वर्ष 2020-21 के लिए टाल दी गई है। किसी कंपनी के डायरेक्टर के लिए देश में कम से कम 182 दिन रहना जरूरी था लेकिन अब वो ऐसा नहीं कर पाते हैं तो इसे नियमों का उल्लंघन नहीं माना जाएगा। ऐसी अनेक घोषणाएं वित्त मंत्री द्वारा की गईं जिससे व्यापार जगत को राहत मिलेगी।
उसके बाद उन्होंने 1.70 लाख करोड़ रुपये के पैकेज का ऐलान किया। निर्मला सीतारमन ने कहा कि प्रधानमंत्री गरीब कल्याण अन्न योजना के तहत किसी गरीब को भूखा नहीं रहने दिया जाएगा। अभी 80 करोड़ लाभार्थियों को हर महीने 5 किलो गेहूं या चावल प्रति व्यक्ति मुफ्त मिलता है। अगले तीन महीने तक इन्हें अतिरिक्त 5 किलो प्रति व्यक्ति गेहूं या चावल दिया जाएगा। प्रति परिवार एक किलो दाल भी दी जाएगी।
सामूहिक प्रयास जरूरी
प्रधानमंत्री ने अपने संदेश में 21 दिन के लॉकडाउन की घोषणा की है और सभी प्रकार की आवश्यक वस्तुओं की आपूर्ति सुनिश्चित करने का आश्वासन भी दिया है। इसलिए यह जरूरी है कि इन 21 दिनों की विकट परिस्थिति में हम अपना धैर्य न खोएं। इस समस्या के निदान के लिए दृढ़ इच्छाशक्ति और संगठित सामूहिक प्रयास की आवश्यकता है।
(लेखक बीजेपी के आर्थिक प्रकोष्ठ के राष्ट्रीय प्रवक्ता हैं।)
Monday, 2 March 2020
Budget focused on wealth creation, business, agri
बजट 2020 किसान हितैषी एवं विकासोन्मुख है
Wednesday, 12 February 2020
Budget 2020 - Sabka Saath, Sabka Vishwas, Sabka Vikas
By Gopal Krishna Agarwal,
This is an Epoch-making budget 2020.
Finance Minister Smt. Nirmala Sitharaman has kept in mind all the segments of
the economy. It enforces Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi’s vision of
achieving 5 trillion dollar economy by 2024, with Sab ka Saath Sab ka Vikas.
The Government has not
bogged down by the resource constraints and has continued with its push of
spending on infrastructure and asset creation. It has taken care that the
social welfare schemes of the government have sufficient funds allocation and
can continue on its path of benefit to the last person (Antyodaya). Though the
fiscal deficit targets have been relaxed but the government gives a fiscal
consolidation path and has also, for the first time, annexed a list of off-budget borrowing in the budget document and settled a very significant debate
about transparency in government borrowing.
All previous
governments had been resorting to off-budget borrowing like oil bonds etc. but
were not disclosing it. FM has estimated a nominal GDP growth rate of 10
percent for the coming year, keeping inflation below 4 percent our real GDP
growth will be above 6 percent.
The budget focuses on
wealth creation, pro-business policy and minimal government intervention under
the Economic Development Theme of the Budget. For resource generation, it has
desisted from increasing direct or indirect taxes. The government has
reiterated its commitment of recognizing and honoring honest taxpayers and is
taking care of unwarranted harassment by tax authority by bringing
accountability in the tax administration. The announcement of the Taxpayer’s Rights
Charter within the statute is an important step in this direction. Provision
for statutory taxpayer’s rights exists only in three other countries worldwide.
Direct personal tax
slabs have been changed to benefit middle-income segment and taxpayers up to
income level of Rs 15 lakh will be benefited if they opt for new regime of
personal tax. FM has also promised that many tax concessions enjoyed currently
by individual taxpayers will be incorporated in the new regime, depending upon
the nature. The taxpayers, who do not have business income, can revise the
option on yearly basis. Income accruing to NRI in zero tax countries like UAE
will be taxed on income generated in India only, a logical step to fill the gap
in taxation.
Deposit insurance for
the scheduled banks has been increased to Rs 5 lakh from the current level of
Rs 1 lakh only per depositor, about which there was very little awareness
amongst the general public. This will help in building more confidence in the
banking industry, bringing transparency. The government has also announced to
bring law for resolution in the financial sector similar to Insolvency and
Bankruptcy Code (IBC).
Cooperative sector gets
the benefit of lowering of tax structure as in the case of reduced taxes for
corporate sector, helping farmers producer organizations (FPO), milk
cooperatives and other charitable institutions operating under cooperative
structure. Even registration for charitable organizations under 80G and 12A has
been made online provisionally, so that they face less harassment and can start
their activities early.
Agriculture sector have
been sufficiently provided for with the 16 new initiatives announced under
Aspirational India theme for rural and agriculture sector. Budget also provides
for gap funding for new hospitals in the aspirational districts for servicing
Ayushman health care scheme and provision for drinking water. State
government’s concerns about two months pending transfer under GST has been duly
met through the consolidated fund and its commitment to compensate the states
for increased 14 percent revenue every year in future has been provided through
compensation.
This settles one of the
contentious issues under GST. For the devolution of funds to the States, the FM has
accepted the interim report of the 15th Finance Commission, which incorporates
provisions of increased efficiency in State Finances for revenue transfer from
the Centre.
Stressed assets under
MSME has been given an extended one-year time period for resolution and limit
to go to resolution mechanism under SARFASI Act has been reduced to 100 crore
from earlier 500 crore. The requirement for Tax Audit has been increased to a
turnover of Rs 5 crore from Rs 1 crore earlier. MSME also meets its demand for
invoice financing under Trends. Startup ecosystem gets several hand holding
supports like payment of taxes for ESOPs only at the point of sale. GIG
economy, involving technological development, gets a big push from the
government. Education sector has several reforms for connecting academics to
industries, providing them with industrial internship and skilling etc.
Setting of online
educational facilities and new Police and Cybercrime University are important
development. Employment through National Recruitment Agency for non-gazette
posts will smoothen employment process and make it completely transparent.
Under the theme of
Economic Development, government provides for all the important sectors like
Technological Textile Centers, power, renewable energy, connectivity like
airports, seaports and railways. Finance minister works out a mechanism for the
ambitious plan of investment of Rs 103 lakh crore under National Infrastructure
Pipeline (NIP) identifying 6500 projects through Center, State, and foreign direct
investments (FDI). Budget has announced 100% tax exemption to interest,
dividend, and capital gains income in respect of investment made in
infrastructure and other notified priority sectors before 31st march 2024 with
a lock in period of three years. Government has also opened up its bond
markets, in rupee denomination, for investment from foreign sovereign debt
funds, securing against exchange fluctuations, a concern shown earlier for
sovereign debt funds. Financial market’s long pending demand for abolition of
dividend distribution tax (DDT) has been accepted.
Government has also
taken care of inverted duty structure that has seeped in the domestic industry
under the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) from ASEAN countries. It also protects
domestic industries from dumping from countries like China, securing domestic
industries through clauses like country of origin and safeguard duties.
Discrimination of civil
acts under Company Law and removal fear in the corporate sector has been hailed
across every section. Faceless appeal provision and Vivad se Vishwas scheme
will help resolving long pending tax disputes in tax administration and will
also release funds for the government. Disinvestment roadmap will help reduce
government dependence of tax revenue and improvement of primary and secondary
bond markets and increasing foreign debt investment limit commercial papers from
9 to 15 percent will help reduce dependence of corporate sector on bank finance
alone.
Thursday, 6 February 2020
Development for all
Development for all
Budget
covers financial, development concerns
The Centre has not been bogged down by the resource
constraints and has continued with its spending on infrastructure and asset
creation. It has taken care to ensure that the social welfare schemes of the
government have been allocated sufficient funds and are able to continue on
their path of benefit to the last man. Though the fiscal deficit targets have
been relaxed, the government has mapped out a fiscal consolidation path,
annexed a list of off-budget borrowing, and settled a very significant debate about
transparency in government borrowing. The Finance Minister has set a nominal
GDP growth rate of 10 per cent for the coming year, a 4 per cent inflation
target and a 6 per cent real GDP growth target.
The Budget focuses on
wealth creation, but for resource generation, it has kept away from increasing
taxes. The government has reiterated its commitment of recognising and
honouring honest taxpayers and taking care of unwarranted harassment by the tax
authority, bringing accountability in the tax administration. The announcement
of the incorporation of the taxpayers' rights charter within the statute is an
important step in this direction. Such a provision for taxpayers' rights exists
only in three other countries worldwide.
Direct personal tax slabs
have been changed to benefit the middle-income segment. Deposit insurance has
been increased to 5 lakh to help build more confidence in the banking sector.
The agriculture sector
has been sufficiently provided for in 16 initiatives announced under the
'Aspirational India' theme.
The financial market's
long-pending demand for the abolition of the dividend distribution tax has
been met. Stressed assets under MSMEs have been given a one-year extension for
resolution. The startup ecosystem gets several handholding measures, such as
allowing for payment of taxes for ESOPs only at the point of sale.
The education sector saw
several reforms for connecting academics to industries, providing them with
industrial internships, online education facilities, and a new 'police and cybercrime
university'. Employment through the national recruitment agency will streamline
the process and ensure transparency.
Under the theme of
economic development, the government provides for all the important sec tors,
like technological textile centres, power, renewable energy, and for
connectivity through airports, seaports and railways. The Finance Minister
has worked out a mechanism for the ambitious plan of investment in the 103-lakh
crore National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP), identifying 6,500 projects.
The Budget also provides
for gap funding for new hospitals in aspirational districts for servicing the
Ayushman Bharat healthcare scheme.
The government has also
opened up its bond markets for foreign sovereign debt investments, in rupee
denomination to secure against exchange fluctuations, a concern shown for
sovereign debt funds.
The government has also addressed the inverted duty structure that has seeped into the domestic industry under free trade agreements. It also protects domestic industries from dumping and clauses like value addition. The cooperative sector saw a lowering of taxes, similar to the corporate sector. Measures to remove discrimination and removing fear in the corporate sector have been hailed across every section. The faceless appeal system, disinvestment roadmap and improvement of the primary and secondary bond markets will help reduce dependence of corporate sector on bank finance alone. MSMEs' demand for invoice financing under TReDS has also been met.
The writer is national spokesperson of BJP on economic affairs