Saturday, 26 May 2018

Modi in China: Mending strained ties for mutual benefit


The global interest generated by the visit of prime minister Narendra Modi to Wuhan for an ‘informal’ summit meeting with the Chinese president Xi Jinping is a testimony to the importance of these two Asian giants in the present global order. China and India are not only important for each other, their agreements or disagreements on issues can now influence the global narrative. The world today is dealing with intractable issues of terrorism, rise in protectionism and climate change and both India and China have to make important contributions in these matters.

Modi government’s foreign policy has been focused on developing bilateral ties to serve India’s interest with various countries. Bilateral relations are all about give-and-take.

There are many sore points in the Indo-China relationship from our point of view. The dispute arising from China’s refusal to accept Macmohan line as the international border hangs like Damocles sword over our relationship and the standoff at Doklam was a chilling reminder of it. China’s unqualified support to Pakistan has also been a cause of concern here. It has allowed Pakistan to raise its stakes against India. India has also expressed its displeasure at the ‘One Belt One Road’ (OBOR) passing through Pakistan occupied Kashmir (POK). India’s attempt to get Masood Azhar designated as international terrorist by the United Nations has constantly been vetoed by China. It has also frustrated India’s goal of becoming a member of Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). China’s refusal to share river water data on Brahmaputra and others was also an irritant.

China has its own reasons to be frosty with India. India’s asylum to Tibetians is not viewed very kindly by it. India’s growing proximity with United States of America and the coalescing of this association with Japan and Australia with a view to ensure freedom of navigation in the South China Sea irks China. Chinese riding roughshod over its smaller neighbours has led these countries to develop closer ties with India, which even with all its limitations, is seen as a country that can stand up to China. It is in this background that this informal summit is taking place.

In spite of all these hiccups, there are several considerations in which India can be benefited from better ties with China. China is the biggest trading partner of India and runs a considerable balance of trade surplus with India at around $50 billion. India has expressed its discomfort at this skewed trade relationship and China has expressed its willingness to address the issue. With the labour cost rising in China, a lot of low value addition manufacturing will become internationally uncompetitive and will have to move out to countries. India can benefit from this by insisting that Indian MSME clusters be made part of Chinese global supply chain. The second leg of achieving trade balance can be higher exports of agricultural and pharmaceutical goods and IT services. India must insist that tariff and non-tariff barriers do not stultify the export of Indian products and services in these categories. It is of paramount importance that India finds outlet for its increasing agricultural production, failing which Indian farmers will continue to suffer from price crashes. India should also insist on local production of Chinese imports to bring down trade deficit. Such a shift in manufacturing will also complement government’s ‘Make in India’ initiative.

India also stands to benefit if it can attract foreign direct investment (FDI) from China. According to the provisional figures for the year 2016-17 of the Reserve Bank of India, FDI received from China was USD 198 million whereas the total FDI received that year was USD 36.32 billion. Thus China’s share in total FDI was about 0.55 percent. According to the World Investment Report 2017, which was jointly released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development and the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation under the Ministry of Commerce, China was the second largest source of outward FDI in the year 2016 with the figure being USD 183 billion. China as a source of FDI is therefore virtually untapped. These FDI can be in the field of Power, Fintech, infrastructure sector and railways, where India needs huge capital investments.

India can also work with China in the areas of energy security, water security and climate change. Indian and Chinese interests converge on the issue of energy security as they both are dependent on foreign sources of fossil fuels. At the recently concluded 16th International Energy Forum, it was agreed that India and China will work together to leverage their buying power to get better deals from oil exporting countries. China can also be of great help in developing our renewable energy sector. Mansarovar, which is the source of three major rives that pass through India, lies in China and we need Chinese cooperation in order to fully utilize these rivers.

Gains to China from a good relationship with India are also considerable. Assured of a responsible behavior from China in consonance with the international laws, India will have no reason to be a part of any international containment strategy against China. Further, as China prospers it would need outlet for its capital. India, with its vast market, can be one of the attractive opportunities. China’s most ambitious global signature project of One Belt One Road, which seeks to recreate the silk route of the old times, cannot be truly successful without the participation of India.

India and China share very old cultural and civilizational ties. It is hoped that the sagacity of the leadership of these two countries at the Wuhan meet will provide the two countries with a new template to revive the old bonds.

Gopal Krishna Agrawal
National Spokesperson on Economic affairs of BJP
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