Tuesday, 14 August 2018

Vote-banks and foreigners


Opposition parties have sensed a chance after the release of the final draft of the NRC. Every attempt is being made to create a crisis where none exists. However, it is grossly premature to speculate on the future of those identified as illegal immigrants. Religion, region and caste have always affected politics but governance should be above such considerations.

A perfectly legitimate exercise by the Assam government, under the Assam Accord, has precipitated condemnable reaction from the Opposition parties. The Congress — and its president, Rahul Gandhi — must make its stand clear on the issue of illegal migrants from neighbouring countries. Both Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi had committed that immigrants to Assam after March 25, 1971, would be detected, identified and deported. The Congress had agreed to the NRC. But the party did nothing in this respect when it held office at the Centre or in Assam because the immigrants are mostly Muslims and the party has cultivated this community as its vote bank.

The Congress also tried to subvert the Foreigners Act 1946 through the Illegal Migrant Determination by Tribunal (IMDT) Act, 1983. The IMDT Act was stuck down by the Supreme Court in 2005. The Court’s verdict came in response to a petition filed by Assam’s current Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal. The court noted that the IMDT “is the main impediment or barrier in the identification and deportation of illegal migrants”.

The Congress’s conduct in the affair requires close scrutiny. In an affidavit filed before the Supreme Court on August 28, 2000, the then Asom Gana Parishad (AGP)-led government pointed out that it had been asking the Centre to repeal the IMDT Act because the law was against national interest. In May 2001, the AGP was defeated in elections to the Assam Assembly and a Congress-led government assumed office. On August 8, 2001, the new government moved an application in the apex court praying that the state be permitted to withdraw the earlier affidavit and be allowed to file a new affidavit. The application stated that “the IMDT Act is constitutional and there is no question of either repeal or striking down of the Act”.

The Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA government at the Centre had filed an affidavit in the matter on July 18, 2000, stating that a proposal to repeal the IMDT Act was under its consideration. However, the Congress-led UPA government which assumed office at the Centre in 2004 file another affidavit in November that year. It said that the Centre had decided to retain the IMDT Act in its present form. But the Court stuck down the Act in 2005. It observed, “The dangerous consequences of large-scale illegal migration from Bangladesh, both for the people of Assam and more for the nation as a whole, need to be emphatically stressed. No misconceived and mistaken notions of secularism should be allowed to come in the way of doing so”.

It would not be an exaggeration to say that at the root of all socio-political problems in the country lie the Congress’s myopic politics. The party’s position on several issues, including the triple talaq issue, the Supreme Court judgment on maintenance to Shah Bano, illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, Ram Temple at Ayodhya and the plight of Kashmiri Pundits, testify to its myopic vision. The party is responsible for communalising Indian politics.

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s political ambitions have grown in recent times. She sees the NRC issue as an opportunity to consolidate her Muslim vote-bank. Banerjee has dishonestly described the NRC as a restriction on the inter-state movement of Indian citizens. She is trying to turn the NRC into a Hindu-Muslim issue. We hope she explains her stand on the issue of illegal migration from Bangladesh. It is another matter that on August 4, 2005, she had stated in the Lok Sabha: “Infiltration in Bengal has become a disaster now. You can see Bangladeshi as well as Indian names in the list. I have both the Bangladeshi and the Indian voters’ list. This is a very serious matter”. The silence of other political parties like the CPI, CPM, BSP, SP, RJD reeks of hypocrisy.

The illegal immigrants are not refugees. The movement under the banners of the AASU and AAGSP had emerged because the people of Assam feared the adverse social, political, cultural and economic impacts of the unabated influx of foreigners. Census figures show that the percentage of Assamese-speakers in the state declined from 58 per cent in 1991 to 48 per cent in 2001. The Muslim population of Assam increased from 25 per cent in 1951 to 34 per cent in 2011.

All political parties should express their stand on the issue of illegal immigrants in no uncertain terms. Fear-mongering and hyperventilation would not serve the interests of the nation as would keeping quiet on the issue.

Wednesday, 25 July 2018

Petroleum Prices, Why They Are So Important For Our Economy

By Gopal Krishna Agarwal

For understanding petroleum pricing in India: We have to break it into following aspects:

1.     Petroleum prices component

2.     Issues of under recovery and oil bonds during UPA

3.     Revenue to Central and State governments from the petroleum section.

      4.     Alternative Sources of energy and future planning for reduced dependence on oil

Petroleum products pricing is always a contentious issue. It has a large impact on inflation and also a major source of revenue for the Central and State governments, we import about 80% of our consumption needs. An increase of one dollar in the international price of crude oil increases the cost of our petrol and diesel by Rs. 0.50/ litre and one rupee fall in exchange rate against US dollar increase the cost by Rs 0.65/litre of petrol and diesel. We can conclude that the prices of petroleum products are determined in India by external factors. India imported 256.32 million metric tones of crude oil and petroleum products in 2017-18 and paid Rs. 6,52,896 lakh crore.

Earlier under Administered Price Mechanism (APM) followed by UPA, petrol and diesel prices were not market determined.  Steep increase in international prices of oil used to put severe pressure on the oil marketing companies (OMC). Still their retail prices were kept below the cost, resulting in under-recoveries for OMCs. Between the year 2004 to 2014, the total under-recoveries was to the tune of Rs. 8,53,628 crores.

When the international crude prices were increasing, during the period of 2004-08 the subsidy by the government on petroleum products became insufficient. Since the fiscal position of the Government was very bad, there was no scope for increasing the subsidy. The government started issuing ‘oil bonds’ to the OMCs instead of giving cash subsidy. These interests bearing Oil bonds were not even reflected in the Budget provision by the UPA Government, resulting in distortion of fiscal deficit figures. During 2005 to 2010, oil bonds for Rs. 1,42,202 crore were issued,

with rate of interest on them ranging from 7.33 to 8.4 % per annum repayable up to 2024-25 by successive governments in the future. This was a case of postponing current liabilities on the future generation.

Bad fiscal prudence under UPA government resulted in increasing of the interest rates affecting borrowing and investment in the economy and higher inflation for the common men. While the petrol and diesel prices were artificially kept low, people were paying higher prices for almost every other thing. The burden sharing mechanism devised by the UPA government had also led to a depletion of cash reserves of oil companies like ONGC, GAIL and OIL and destruction of their intrinsic market value.

The argument that high taxed on petroleum product in India needs to be brought down to control the spiraling prices has to be closely looked into.

Firstly, this revenue is required for catalyzing India’s economic growth, for building infrastructure for better quality of life and providing social security to the poor classes and in the backward areas. Secondly, large component of Central government duties on petroleum products i.e. 42% of the Basic Excise Duty is given to State governments and 60% of the balance 58% of the Basic Duty is spent on Centrally Sponsored welfare schemes in the States i.e. total amount transferred to the States by the Centre is (42+34.8)= 76.8 % of the Basic Excise Duty. It is also estimated that a one rupee reduction in the excise duty at the Centre would reduce revenue collection by Rs 14,000 crores.


Increase in the petroleum prices has different effect on the tax collected by the Centre and the States, which also has to be analyzed properly. In a decontrolled regime now being followed in India, any change in international crude price is passed on to the consumer. Higher prices are likely to reduce consumption. The taxes imposed by the Centre are specific tax, i.e., fixed in terms of Rs per unit. So, if the consumption falls, the tax collected by the Centre goes down. The States, however, levy ad valorem taxes i.e. percentage based on prices and therefore with the increase in petroleum prices, its tax collection does not fall even with fall in consumption. Therefore, if the taxes on petroleum products have to be reduced in wake of the rising international prices, it should be done by the States first than by the Centre.

The solution to this teething problem on the long-term basis, is to change the share of petroleum products in energy consumption mix (34.48%, year 2015-16) We need to generate more energy from coal and lignite (46.28%), which and also focus on electricity generation from hydro, nuclear and other renewable sources like wind and solar (12.75%).

Shri Narendra Modi government is working on this line. In the coming years we will definitely see a fall in the contribution of petroleum products in the overall energy share in our consumption.


Saturday, 14 July 2018

विकास के लिए जरुरी है तेल

 विकास के लिए जरुरी है तेल

गोपाल कृष्ण अग्रवाल,

पेट्रोलियम उत्पादों की कीमत हमेशा से ही एक विवादित मुद्दा रहा है। एक तरफ घरेलू मुद्रास्फीति पर इसका बड़ा असर पड़ता है और दूसरी ओर यह केंद्र और राज्य के लिए राजस्व का एक प्रमुख स्रोत है। तेल पदार्थ के उपभोग की आवश्यकताओं के लिए 80 फीसद से अधिक हमारी आयात पर निर्भरता इसकी कीमतों को निर्धारित करने की हमारी क्षमता को काफी कमजोर करती है। एक डॉलर कच्चे तेल की अंतरराष्ट्रीय कीमत में वृद्धि से भारत में पेट्रोल और डीजल की कीमत में रुपये 0.50 प्रति लीटर की बढ़ोतरी होती है और अमेरिकी डॉलर के मुकाबले भारतीय रुपये की विनिमय दर में गिरावट से भारत में पेट्रोल और डीजल की कीमत में रुपये 0.65 प्रति लीटर की वृद्धि होती है। इस प्रकार पेट्रोलियम पदार्थ के मूल्य निर्धारण में हम माहरी कारकों पर ही अधिक निर्भर है।

2004-08 के दौरान अंतरराष्ट्रीय बाजार में कच्चे तेल की कीमतें तेजी से बढ़ रही थीं, पेट्रोलियम उत्पादों की कीमतों को कृत्रिम रूप से कम करने के लिए सरकारी सब्सिडी अपर्याप्त साबित हो रही थी। चूंकि यूपीए सरकार की वित्तीय स्थिति पहले से ही खराब थी, इसलिए वह नकद सब्सिडी के स्थान पर ऑयल मार्केटिंग कंपनियों को तेल बांड जारी करने के वैकल्पिक का सहारा लिया। तेल बांड के मूल धन एवं ब्याज राशि भी सरकार द्वारा बजट प्रावधान में नहीं दधाए गए जिसकेपरिणामस्वरूप बढ़े हुए राजकोषीय घाटे का कृत्रिम मूल्यांकन हुआ। 2005-06 और 2009-10 के बीच सरकार द्वारा 1,42,202 करोड़ रुपये के तेल बांड जारी किए गए थे, जिनकी ब्याज दर 7.33 से 8.4 फीसद थी। इस राशि को ब्याज सहित भविष्य की सरकारों द्वारा 2024-25 तक चुकाना था।

इस खराब वित्तीय स्थिति ने आर्थिक स्तर पर ब्याज दरों में काफी बढ़ोतरी की और सामान्य जन के लिए महंगाई की मुद्रास्फीति को बढ़ा दिया। इस प्रकार लोग कृत्रिम रूप से कम कीमत पर पेट्रोल और डीजल प्राप्त तो कर रहे थे, लेकिन वे लगभग सभी चीजों के लिए अधिक कीमत भी चुका रहे थे। यूपीए सरकार द्वारा तैयार इस तंत्र ने सरकारी तेल कंपनियों की आर्थिक स्थिति खराब कर दी।

दूसरा तर्क है कि भारत में पेट्रोलियम उत्पादों पर अत्यधिक कर लगाया गया है में और उन्हें बढ़ती कीमतों को निर्यात्रत करने के लिए नीचे लाया जाना चाहिए। पहले तो भारत के आर्थिक विकास, बेहतर जीवन के लिए , आधारभूत बुनियादी ढांचे का निर्माण और गरीब वर्गों और पिछड़े क्षेत्रों को सामाजिक सुरक्षा प्रदान करने के लिए इस राजस्व की जरूरत है। दूसरा, पेट्रोलियम उत्पादों पर केंद्र सरकार के करो का एक बड़ा हिस्सा; - मूल उत्पाद शुल्क का 42 फीसद राज्य सरकारों को दिया जाता है और शेष कर राशि 58 फीसद का भी 60 फीसद (यानी 34.8 फीसद) केंद्रीय प्रायोजित कल्याण योजनाओं पर खर्च के लिए प्रदेश सरकार को दिया जाता है। इस प्रकार राज्यों में स्थानांतरित कुल राशि 76.8 फीसद है। सरकारी अनुमान है कि केंद्र द्वारा पेट्रोलियम पदार्थ पर उत्पाद शुल्क में 1 रुपये की कटौती से उसका राजस्व संग्रह 14,000 करोड़ रुपये कम हो जाएगा।

केंद्र और राज्यों द्वारा एकत्रित कर पर पेट्रोलियम की कीमतों में वृद्धि का असर स्पष्ट रूप से समझा जाना चाहिए। केंद्र द्वारा लगाए गए कर, प्रति यूनिट के आधार पर तय किए गए है। इसलिए यदि खपत गिरती है तो केंद्रीय कर कम हो जाता है। राज्य, मूल्यानुसार कर लेते हैं जिससे पेट्रोलियम की कीमतों में वृद्धि के साथ, इससे कर की मात्रा बढ़ जाती है। इसलिए बढ़ती अंतरराष्ट्रीय कीमतों के चलते पेट्रोलियम उत्पादों पर करों को केंद्र की तुलना में राज्यों को अधिक कम करना चाहिए।

हमें इस कठिन समस्या का दीर्घकालिक समाधान भी खोजना जरूरी है जिसके लिए हमें ऊर्जा खपत मिश्रण में पेट्रोलियम उत्पादों के हिस्से (34.48 फीसद, वर्ष 2015-16) को बदलना होगा। हमें कोयले और लिग्नाइट (46.28 फीसद) से अधिक ऊर्जा उत्पन्न करने की जरूरत है, जल, सौर, हाइड्रो, परमाणु व अन्य नवीकरणीय स्रोतों (12.75 फीसद) से अधिक बिजली उत्पादन पर ध्यान केंद्रित करने की जरूरत है। मोदी सरकार इस दीर्घकालिक समाधान पर काम कर रही है और आने वाले वर्षों में जब इस स्रोतों से ऊर्जा मिलने लगेगी तो पेट्रोलियम उत्पादों के उपयोग में अपने आप गिरावट देखी जाएगी।

(भाजपा के राष्ट्रीय प्रवक्ता)