Sunday 11 December 2016
Monday 24 October 2016
Government Has a Roadmap to Ravitalize GDP Growth
By Gopal
Krishna Agarwal,
National
Spokesperson on economic Affairs, BJP
The
announcements on demonetization have created a disruption in the country’s economic eco-system. There is a Debate
whether it will help us curb corruption and eliminate Black money. What will be
its impact on the economy in the short medium and long term particularly in the
important segments such as the rural and agriculture sectors micro small and medium
enterprises and the unorganized sector such as small traders shop owners and
daily wagers? But demonetization has to be seen in a larger perspective.
Bringing economic growth and curbing corruption and eliminating black money were the two important mandates on which our government came to power. Some important aspects have to be kept in mind. A recent world bank report stated that 20 percent of black wealth of our country is stashed across all assets class- real estate gold and currency etc. The Global Wealth report 2016 shows that 1 percent of the population has over 58 percent of the country’s wealth. In this India ranks second after Russia. It also states that 97 percent has wealth of less than $ 10000- approximately Rs 7,00,000. This points out that over the years a lot of our wealth was accumulated in the form of black money in the hands of a select few. A large population was deprived of benefits of growth. Though the GDP Grew fast employment could not keep pace with it leading to skewed growth in the economy.
This has to be
corrected at all cost. Objectives and effects of demonetization cannot not be
analysed in isolation. It is a part of the series of measures undertaken by the
Narendra Modi Government. The very next day Shri Modi came to power a Special
Investigation Team was setup to suggest steps to curb corruption and eliminate
black money.
The government
has money objectives in mind from demonetization. First , due to huge currency
in circulation the economy had inflationary pressure and housing was out of the common man’s reach.
Demonetisation
will reduce prices in real estate and bring down inflation. Second It will
bring resources to the government for social benefits schemes for the poor and
low income groups and infrastructure development. Third, We will be able to
move towards a low interest rate economy. It will help create infrastructure
for smoother implementation of GST which will help us reduce indirect taxes. It
will also curb terrorist and criminal activities. Fake currencies will be
eliminated. As the cost of online payments and mobile banking are cheaper compared
to physical transaction, we have to benefit of lower cost of transactions. And
finally with audit trail and transparency, There will be higher tax compliance
visible from the third quarter tax collection and 15 percent increase in direct
tax collection. The government is aware of the liquidity crunch but this will
be sorted out by December 30. It will Bring liquidity back into the system but
at a reduced level of about 9 percent of GDP.
Objectives and effects of demonetization cannot be analyses in isolation. It is a part of the measures undertaken by the Modi Government
The government knows that a squeeze in liquidity can negatively affect economy activities. Therefore, It has a roadmap to revitalize GDP Growth. The Increased current account and savings accounts deposits of banks will reduce their cost of funds and increased availability of funds. The Government will focus on credit off take through startup, mudra loans to medium and small and rural sectors of the economy at the reduced rate of interest. Real estate prices have started falling and with the fall in the rate of EMI housing will come within the reach of the common man and will boost the construction industry. If the black money in circulation does not come to RBI through the banks, It will reduce the liability of the central bank bringing several benefits to the economy, but this will be achieved only when black money is not recycled therefore temporary restrictions on withdrawal. With higher tax compliances the government will be able to create a premium on honesty and move towards lower rates of taxation, as already hinted by the Finance Ministers.
Friday 21 October 2016
At Ease With The World
By Gopal
Krishna Agarwal,
National
spokesperson, BJP
PRIME MINISTER
Narendra Modi has been able to leverage India's economic advantages to improve
international relations and vice versa. He recognizes that India's ambition to
become a $10-trillion economy and create 175 millions jobs by 2032 will depend
on linking the country's foreign policy to domestic transformation. The Modi
government's policies have been geared to attract foreign capital and towards
regional stability, peace and prosperity.
The prime minister's personal rapport with
international leaders
has significantly enhanced India's profile and given it a confidence never seen
before. Western economies are facing serious challenges. Global economic growth
is seeing a downward trend.
However,
Modi has been successful in convincing the international community that India
will realize its true potentials an economic power. He has removed apprehensions
about corruption and showed commitment to reforms in tax and corporate laws,
better resource allocation, faster government clearances, removal of bureaucratic
hurdles and retrospective taxation. Two major apprehensions under the UPA
regime - policy paralysis and large-scale corruption - have been effectively
checked.
The
government has embarked on initiatives like Make in India, Digital India, Smart Cities, Clean India, Clean Ganga, GST and the
bankruptcy law, speeded up project clearances and revived stalled projects.
Over
the years, bilateral trade relations and agreements have gained enormous significance
in the international business arena and are now more influential than
multilateral pacts like the WTO and GATT. It is becoming more and more
difficult to bring developing countries to common agreeable points at
multilateral platforms and, there-fore, small trade blocks like ASEAN, SAARC
and BRICS and bilateral Free Trade Agreements have gained prominence. PM Modi
has leveraged this tend to India's economic and strategic advantage. Over a
span of two years, he has visited more than 42 countries and nurtured new
developmental and economic blocks. The Act East policy connecting Bhutan
Bangladesh India Nepal (BBIN) through GPS and common licensing policy, a road
corridor from the North East to Myanmar are commendable initiatives.
The
Modi government ratified the Land
Border
Dispute Agreement (LBA) and addressed the maritime boundary dispute with
Bangladesh. It fast-tracked development projects in Afghanistan. India's
participation in the development of the Chabahar port in Iran and forging a
trilateral pact to build a land transit-and-trade corridor through Afghanistan
are stepping stones for bigger future involvement. The PM's Tehran visit
underlined the changing context of Iran, now a stable and resourceful country and important for our energy security.
India-Japan relations are at their best India hopes to attract $5.5 billion of investments from Japan. Modi has built a good rapport with the German chancellor. Germany is the key provider of high-end technology and has surplus capital. India is looking forward to both technology and capital investment from Germany. In partnership with France, India has established the International Solar Alliance, with the head office in Gurgaon. This alliance, with 120 countries as members, aims to harness the country’s solar power potential. Modi’s reconnect with Central Asia has also been a crucial intervention Uzbekistan has strong cultural ties with India.
Turkmenistan is rich in energy; Kazakhstan has huge hydro potential while Tajikistan is historically significant. Africa offers India a massive opportunity to expand our global economic footprint. The continent is an important market for the Indian economy. The 54 African states have a combined GDP. Which is larger than that of India? The third India-Africa Summit in New Delhi in 2015 focused on enhancing India's engage with Africa.
A visionary step of PM Modi was leveraging India's powerful diaspora. While empowering the diaspora in their domicile countries, the government has coordinated with them for advocacy and building influence. He sought to connect directly with NRIs in a unique fashion. His first outreach in New York - at Madison Square Garden - attracted 15,000 NRIs. About 5,000 people attended his meeting in Beijing whereas over 60,000 people turned up for the Wembley Stadium programme. The significance of the diaspora is self-evident in the flow of remittance to India: According to the World Bank, India received $72 billion in 2015 as foreign remittance, making it the world's largest remittance-receiving country.
India
is now among the world's top destinations for FDI flows. It has attracted
investment of close to $200 billion from foreign investors. In 2014, India's
total trade was 46 per cent of the GDP. India plans to double its aggregate
global trade over the next decade.
Our
targets for 2019 include becoming the top start-up destination in the world,
achieving 60 per cent digital penetration and increasing the share of
manufacturing in GDP From 16 percent to 25 percent by 2022.
Wednesday 14 September 2016
Economic Implication of PM Modi's Foreign Policy
Economic Implication of PM Modi's Foreign Policy
By
Gopal Krishna Agarwal,
There is no doubt that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been able to leverage India’s economic advantages to improve international relations and vice versa. His government has recognized that the country’s leverage is dependent primarily on the size of Indian economy, its growth trajectory and the ability of the strong government at the center to address challenges.
India’s ambition to become $10 trillion economy and to create 175 million jobs by 2032 will depend on the internal reforms initiatives. Linking India’s Foreign policy to domestic transformation, his policy seeks to attract foreign capital. The policies are geared towards regional stability, peace and prosperity. Some important issues such as climate change, conservations of water resources, renewable energy, robust economy defense procurement and manufacturing, which have simultaneous risk and opportunities, are Modi ji ’s vision for a modern India.
Along with this the personal rapport established by PM Narendra Modi with international readers have significantly enhance India’s profile and given it a confidence never seen before ; even to the extent of balancing superpower to our own advantages , as can be seen from the recent G20 Summit. There was visible tension between the US & China, but both were at ease and supportive of India’s concerns. India Cushions itself from not becoming marginalized in the larger US-China context. Beijing has committed S20 billion investments in India in many Industries. The US is also supportive of all over initiatives.
Modi ji has been successful in overcoming doubts in the minds of the international community that India will realize its true potential of economy power. He has removed apprehensions with regard to corruption, transparency, ease of doing business and commitment to reform in tax laws, corporate law, resource allocation, government clearances, removal of bureaucratic hurdles and retrospective taxation. Two major apprehensions under UPA regime. Policy paralysis and large scale corruption have been effectively checkmated. Government has embarked on economic growth with initiatives such as Make in India; Digital India; Smart Cities: Clean India; Clean Ganga; Ease of Doing Business, Tax reforms such as GST; Bankruptcy law; and project clearances & revival of stalled projects. India has become one of the most open economics with regard to FDI policy.
In International Business arena; over the years, bilateral trade relations and agreements have gained enormous significance than multilateral pact such as WTO, GATT, etc. It is becoming more and more difficult to bring developing countries to common agreeable points at multilateral platforms and therefore small trade blocs such as ASEAN, SAARC, BRICS AFRICAN Nations and bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) have gained prominence.
Modi ji has very well leveraged this to India’s economic and strategic advantage. Over the span of two years, He has visited more than 42 countries and held bilateral talks, focused and nurtured new developmental and economic blocs. His initiatives for Act East Policy, connecting Bhutan Bangladesh India Nepal (BBIN) through GPS and common licensing policy building a road corridor from North East to Myanmar etc., are commendable.
Bilateral initiatives
Quickly ratified the long pending Land Border Dispute Agreement (LBA) and the Maritime Boundary dispute with Bangladesh.Government has been wise to fast track India’s developmental projects in Afghanistan. India’s participation in the development of the chabahar port a trilateral pact to build a land transit and trade corridor through Afghanistan are stepping stones for bigger future involvement. His visit to Iran shows the understanding of the changing context of Iran, which is now a stable and resourceful country and important for our energy security. India- Japan relation are at an all time high in the joint statement of India and Japan 2025- India side expressed hope to attract $5.5 billion of investments and support in our infrastructure development. Building Good rapport with German Chancellor Internationally, Germany is the key provider of high end technology and has surplus capital investment. Even for National Mission for Clean Ganga (NMCG) we can learn a lot from the river Rhine experiment; In Partnership with France, India has established the International Solar Alliance with head office in Gurugram (Haryana). This alliance has the membership of 120 countries for better harnessing of the solar power potential. Modi ji reconnect to Central Asia is crucial; Uzbekistan has strong cultural ties. Turkmenistan is rich in energy there is huge hydro potential in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan has historical significance.
Arica offers India a massive opportunity to expand our global economic footprint. The continent is an important market for Indian economy. The 54 African states have a combined GDP which is slightly larger than that of India. The third India Africa Summit in New Delhi in November 2015 had a focus on this engagement. Another important visionary step was leveraging powerful Indian diaspora across the world, in the process empowering them in their own countries, as well as coordinating with them for advocacy and influence for better diplomatic and economic relations with India PM Narendra Modi’s visit to United Arab Emirates (UAE), Seychelles, Mongolia and Fiji has given fillip to Indian exports, Direct connect with NRIs was very innovative, the first such gathering of 15000 NRIs was at New York’s iconic Madison Square Garden in Beijing he attracted a crowd of about 5000 people at Wembley Stadium over 60000 people gathered, Similar was the case in Australia, Inward remittance flows to India, according to the World Bank, totaled S72 billion in 2015, Making India the largest remittance receiving country which is about half of our current account deficit.
Some positive results of foreign Policy initiatives India is the world’s top destination for FDI flows in 2015, helping overcome many of its key growth constraints particularly technology , energy and infrastructure attracting investment commitments of close to S20 billion from foreign investors. In 2014 India’s total exports were 20.7 percent and imports were 25.2 percent of GDP. Total trade was 46 percent of GDP, suggesting a moderate degree of integration with the rest of the world. India plans to double its aggregate global trade over the next decade. Our target for 2019 to become the top start up destination in the world, achieve a top 50 ranking in the global ease of doing business, achieve 60 percent digital penetration and increase the share of manufacturing from 16 to 25 percent of GDP by 2022.
Currently, complex project financing services are undertaken abroad. We have to develop capacity to perform international financial services domestically by introducing some innovative Structured Financial Product. Recently The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has introduced ‘Masala bonds’. We have been strengthening the institutional structure for both commercial and strategic engagement with the rest of the world. India has been advocating governance reforms in International Monetary Fund (IMF), The World Bank, Asian Development Bank, African Development Bank and the inter American Development bank An ongoing negotiation for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a case in point. The minister of Commerce has merged two bodies that handle anti dumping and import safeguard actions in the Director General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) for improved and coordinate negotiations. India’s vigorous quest for Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) membership and becoming the member of Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) are also very significant. Modi ji has been leading the international debate on many issues- tax information exchange, transparency, corruption we were mostly defensive earlier at G20 summit, He said , G20’s efforts should be for zero tolerance for corruption and black money. Zero barriers and full commitment to action.
Fitting
corruption black money and tax evasion were keys to effective financial
governance. We need to eliminate safe havens for economic offenders, track down
and unconditionally extradite money launderers and break down the web of
complex international regulations and excessive banking secrecy that hide the
corrupt and their deeds, “PM Modi said. This is the position of strength that
we have gained at international forums.
Tuesday 30 August 2016
वर्तमान परिपेक्ष्य में व्यक्ति एवं सामाजिक जीवन में गौसेवा का महत्व
Wednesday 22 June 2016
BJP Welcomes New FDI Policy of the Modi Government
Wednesday 15 June 2016
Laying Foundation For a Better tomorrow
By Gopal Krishna
Agarwal,
National
Spokesperson on economic Affairs, BJP
Prime Minister
Narendra Modi's recent trip to America has elevated Indo-US ties to new
heights, especially economic partnership. The confidence exhibited at the
India-US business conclave earlier this week is a case in point.
His government
has recently completed two years in office. Going by the reports of various
international think tanks land international institutions, the Modi government
has set India on the fast track to growth by introducing a raft of measures to
boost the economy.
Recent data
from the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) points towards the fact that
the Centre's focused approach over the last two years is bearing great results.
Some people have expressed their reservations on these economic growth figures.
But apart from a few well-reasoned arguments, most of the criticism is
politically motivated. It should be borne in mind that the GDP now is being
calculated using the globally accepted Gross Value Added (GVA) method.
With the
growth rate nearing 8 percent in the last quarter of 2015-16, there is no doubt
that the economy, which was left in complete shambles by the previous UPA
government, is on the fast track to recovery. All fiscal parameters are on
target, whether it is revenue collection or expenditure or fiscal deficit at
3.9 percent of GDP.
Per capita
income has also risen to Rs 93,293 from Rs 86,879 last year. Experts believe
that the economy could grow in the range of 8-8.2 percent in 2016-17. This
would be backed by agriculture sector growth surpassing the 3-4 percent mark
depending on the monsoon.
All these
achievements are the result of the Modi government's tireless efforts. Flagship
initiatives like UDAY, PAHAL, and renegotiating Mauritius tax treaty, the
revival of held up projects in roads and rural infrastructure, are showing
extremely encouraging results.
These
initiatives have created the requisite infrastructure and demand in the economy
to attract domestic and foreign investment. Corruption-less and transparent
governance in the last two years has added more than Rs 4 lakh crore to the
government treasury on account of spectrum allocation, coal block, and mineral
auctions, etc.
1 would like
to highlight some of the key areas of focus for the government. The first focus
is towards dealing with corruption and crony capitalism. Over the past 20
years, the world has been reeling under the thumb of crony capitalists. To the
uninitiated, crony capitalism is a nexus between businessmen, obliging
bureaucrats, and politicians. It undermines the state, distorts resource
allocation and is against the spirit of equal entrepreneurship opportunities.
Through a fair
judicial system, efficient regulation and transparency in political funding,
one can bring positive results over a long period of time. Immediate steps to
tackle this menace include the careful and transparent process of transfer of
government resources into private hands, management of state-owned banks,
especially their debts and NPAs, control of parking and stashing of illegal
money abroad.
On this count
government has been very focused and successful in its approach. In its recent
edition, The Economist stated: "Encouragingly, India seems to be cleaning
up its act. In 2008 crony wealth reached 18 percent of GDP, putting it on a par
with Russia.
Today it
stands at 3 percent, a level similar to Australia. A slump in commodity prices
has obliterated the balance sheets of its wild west mining tycoons. The
government has got tough on graft, and the central bank has prodded state-owned
lenders to stop giving sweetheart deals to Moghuls. The pinups of Indian
capitalism are no longer the pampered scions of its business dynasties."
A point of
caution is that we have to be very careful with the public-private partnership model. Under
this system, crony capitalists have devised a mechanism of transferring government
resources in a nontransparent manner. A case in point is the DND project in
Noida.
The second
important issue is the management of overall debt. The world has been witness
to China's financial problems and its debt bust. The Chinese Debt/GDP ratio has
increased to 260 percent from 150 percent in a decade. The latest issue of
Economist says that its problem loans have doubled in two years.
Hungry for
profits in a slowing economy, plenty of Chinese banks have miscategorised risky
loans as investments to dodge scrutiny and lessen capital requirements,
according to The Economist. "These shadow loans were worth roughly 16
percent of standard loans in mid-2015, up from just 4 percent in 2012."
There are many
lessons India could learn from China. The Modi government has learned them
well. Instead of pushing the problem under the carpet, the Modi government has
tackled it head on. The ongoing clean-up of bank balance sheets will help spur
economic growth and improve the lenders' profitability. "Prompt actions
are being taken on willful defaulters," said Jayant Sinha, Minister of
State for Finance.
"One of
the key considerations in a situation like this, the banks should be empowered
and consequently protected so that they can bring about prudent settlements,"
said Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley. "The overall operational profit
of public sector banks last year was quite significant. It was in excess of Rs
1.4 lakh crore. It is on account of provisioning that the overall the PSBs
declared a net loss of Rs 18,000 crore
The government
has already enacted the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Code. Another set of
amendments to the debt recovery legislation and securitization legislation are
before Parliament. The government is also considering setting up of Stressed Asset
Management Funds.
The focused
approach is not limited to empowering and supporting banks to deal with NPA
menace, but the government agrees that the bad loan situation has also arisen
on account of certain sectoral stresses like held up road construction, blocked
environmental clearances, and dumping, among others.
The government
is doing everything to restart held up projects, clearances, anti-dumping
measures and do away with policy paralysis. The government has gone even
further ahead and implemented the recommendations of the Nayak Committee Report
like the setting up of a Bank Board Bureau.
The third
important initiative is the ease of doing business. These initiatives have
helped in catalysing private investments. Some of the initiatives include easy
exit policy for genuine investors, repealing of about 1000 redundant laws and
more to come, faster and transparent project clearance policy and better
dispute resolution mechanism in the tax department where thousands of crores of
individual and government resources are blocked.
There has been
a reduction in the cost of collection of direct taxes from 1.36 percent in the
year
2001-2 to 0.59
percent in 2014-15. The government has also initiated premature retirement and
the removal of inefficient and corrupt employees from various departments. And
finally, targeted and focused approach to ending corruption and black money,
giving one-time compliance window to declare illegal foreign and domestic
assets.
Some areas,
which require flagging for the future, are labor reforms, disinvestment
reforms, especially for loss-making PSUs, lowering of interest rates as
demanded by business community with inflation, particularly of food items
looming large, and land acquisition issues and above all the passage of the
Goods and Services Tax Bill.
Narendra
Modi's philosophy of economic development is growth through empowerment. The
government has not only been successful in generating resources for the benefit
of the weaker sections but also spending this money to reach the target
beneficiaries in a transparent manner.
With the use
of JAM and direct benefit transfer (DBT), the government has plugged leakages
and created additional revenue for social security. The government has given
them social security and also generated widespread demand to boost the economy.
Activate
Windou
Go to Settings
to achi
The resources
at the command of the government are being utilized to build rural
infrastructures like toilets in rural areas, electricity to each and every
household, housing for by 2022, irrigation and rural roads.
Employment
opportunities for the weaker sections are being enlarged through Skill India,
Startup India Stand-up India and by easy access to loans under MUDRA Bank. The
real game changer in the near future will be the doubling of farmers' income
through reduced cost, better national market access facilities, risk mitigation
through user-friendly crop insurance cover, soil health card, efficient
irrigation like drip irrigation, neem coated urea and digitization and reforms
of land records, etc.
Truly this
government is focusing on the development of all sections of the society across
cast, creed, religion and geography. As a result of this focused approach, India
has become one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world and has been
able to attract largest Foreign Direct investment (FDI). We are sure that the
government will not sit on its laurels.
There is much
more in store.